Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart issued an article late yesterday (1st) confirming that the window period for SEC review has officially fallen from January 5 to 10, 2024, and added that investors are reminded that the chance of ETF passing the test in advance is small, and any Possible approval orders will be issued over the three days from January 8th to 10th.
(Recap:Sort out the SEC review process and predict the possible time for the approval of “the first Bitcoin spot ETF”）
(Background supplement:MicroStrategy purchased another 593 million magnesium BTC in November. Is the reason for bargain hunting related to the Bitcoin spot ETF?）
Unexpectedly, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) indeed postponed the final decision-making time for several Bitcoin spot ETFs in November. However, as December approaches and Bitcoin once again stands above $38,000, the market is bullish. As expectations increase, the time left for the SEC to delay is indeed no longer sufficient.
Against this background, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart issued an article late yesterday (1st) confirming that the window period for SEC review has officially fallen from January 5 to 10, 2024, and added to remind investors:
In practice, this also means that any potential approval orders will be issued between Monday, January 8th and Wednesday, January 10th (Wednesday), so mark your calendars.
Window is officially Jan 5th to Jan 10th. Really this means that any potential approval orders are going to come on either Monday Jan 8, Tuesday Jan 9, or Wednesday Jan 10. Mark your calendars people.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) December 1, 2023
The chance of passing early is extremely small
At the same time, James Seyffart also responded to the question of community members “Is it possible to pass early?”, saying:
Judging from the recent actions of the SEC, the chance of early approval is very small. Technically, they could have approved at least nine ETF applications earlier in the window, but it seems they won’t.
In addition, he also added a final result that may disappoint the market, that is, the SEC will not issue any approval order during the window period of January next year:
Finally, if these ETF applications are not approved during the window period, although the chance is only 10% or less, it only means that the SEC has either gone to extremes or is not ready and somehow convinced Ark Investment ( ARK Investment) withdrew its application and also provided it with some kind of commitment.
Expert: ETF clearance will affect BTC volatility
Although the market currently agrees that the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF will detonate the market and help BTC reach new historical highs, analysts have different opinions on the impact that the ETF will have on Bitcoin’s volatility.
Some experts believe that although Bitcoin is decentralized, the distribution of BTC is still concentrated in the hands of a relatively small number of whales, which also means that whales have a huge impact on the price of BTC. However, once the Bitcoin spot ETF passes, the number of investors will be expanded to weaken the influence of the whales, thus reducing the volatility of Bitcoin. Nate Geraci, CEO of The ETF Store, an investment and financial advisory company, said:
Bitcoin spot ETFs will provide a wider range of investors with exposure to investing in Bitcoin. In theory, ETFs can increase the number of Bitcoin investors, thereby reducing the volatility of BTC, which will also make it more difficult for whales to control Bitcoin. s price.
However, ETF expert Laurent Kssis holds the opposite view. He used physical creation and cash creation as examples to express that spot ETFs will not only not reduce volatility, but will also become the source of Bitcoin price fluctuations:
With physical creation, the AP (authorized participant) buys the assets and delivers them to the issuer; with cash creation, if the issuer manages to buy them at a cheaper price, then it makes some profit, but if at a higher Price buys them and it spits out the excess.
So upon redemption, there will be more arbitrageurs trading around that difference and creating volume to expand the market or trade the difference between Bitcoin Cash and futures prices, inadvertently creating a price in between fluctuation.
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