© Reuters
– Putin met with Biden in early 2011, when the American was vice president.
Joy Biden will meet for the first time today as President of the United States with Vladimir Putin in person in Geneva, but no one expects a breakthrough in relations that both sides acknowledge are at their lowest point in many years.
The Russian president will arrive first for the talks, which are scheduled to go through 3 stages for 4-5 hours, without interruptions and lunch or dinner, without signing any documents, and without a joint press conference.
Talks at an 18th-century villa on Lake Geneva were proposed by the US president, and so far the maximum expected of them is a slightly more stable and predictable relationship with Moscow, as well as establishing a direct dialogue with the new administration in Washington and seeking effective mechanisms on topics of common interest.
Putin arrives first, and a meeting of the presidents and foreign ministers begins at 1 pm (2 pm Bulgarian time), followed by their joining the wider national delegations, a coffee break and another conversation session.
Disagreements between Moscow and Washington extend to almost every topic, and Biden has been criticized at home for meeting the Russian president at a time when his rule is becoming increasingly repressive. But at the same time, the West’s approach to imposing new and new sanctions does not achieve its goal – to make Putin change his behavior, both abroad and towards his own citizens.
See below for topics with similarities and differences between the United States and Russia
The scope of the discussed issues is determined in advance and the sequence of their consideration is even specified. Starting from bilateral relations, they extend to strategic stability, the fight against cybercrime and hacking and interference in democratic elections, economic cooperation, climate change, the Arctic, Syria, Ukraine, the Middle East, Iran’s nuclear program, Libya, Afghanistan, the situation on the Korean Peninsula, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and almost certainly the events in Belarus and the fate of Alexei Navalny …
That is why the Russian delegation, for example, includes the people of the Kremlin, leading on key topics such as Ukraine and Syria, as well as the Chief of the General Staff of the Army, Gen. Valery Gerasimov.
–
But what if Putin rejects all American demands, such as the signals coming from him so far? The Russian president denies that his country is involved in certain events at all, and this does not give much hope that he will reduce Moscow’s aggressive actions, especially since he did not request this meeting.
“There is no guarantee that you can change the behavior of a person or a country,” Biden said on Sunday. “Autocrats have enormous power, they are not accountable to their society. And it is very likely that when I react, this will not convince him and continue in the same way.”
But there is something new that Washington and Moscow want to talk about, and that is the rapidly growing role of new technologies and the negotiation of some rules of conduct in cyberspace. According to Newsweek, Putin has an interest in a global non-aggression pact with information technology – an area that is becoming a new field for the arms race without clear boundaries, which could be considered the first strike to strike back.
“I want Biden to explain very clearly to Putin what the risk is – that we will not be inactive if Russia attacks us and we determine what happens to us is ‘digital Pearl Harbor’, ie Russia will not control the dynamics of escalation.” commented Evelyn Farkas, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia.
Biden arrives at the talks immediately after the G7, NATO and EU-US summits. with very current support from the democratic world. For Putin, however, this is the fourth American president since he has been in power, and so far he has skillfully concluded such talks with promises, and then continues in his own way.
At this stage, “adjusting the clocks” and specifying mechanisms to avoid misunderstandings can be considered a good result. The lowered expectations are also evident from the attention paid to the event by the Western media – hours before the meeting it is not among the leading headlines at all.
–
Similarities and differences
Cyber security and hacker attacks
The professional attacks on criminals, which are reportedly linked to Russia and have recently been targeted twice at critical American infrastructure. The FBI did not provide any evidence of Russian government involvement in the attacks, and Putin said the idea that Russia was responsible was absurd. But Biden intends to raise the issue and urge the Russian authorities to crack down on such cybercriminals and not to interfere in US domestic politics.
Human Rights and Bulk
Biden said his administration would prioritize the global promotion of human rights and democracy and would not shy away from warning countries about their actions. Washington has criticized Moscow for allegedly poisoning Navalny and said he should be released. The Kremlin, which denies the poisoning, has said that Russian policy is an internal matter, that Washington must stay away from it and will not accept lectures from a country that it believes has many of its own human rights problems.
Nuclear weapons
The world’s two largest nuclear powers want to talk about arms control to ensure stable relations between their military. In February, they extended for five years the new START treaty, which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads, missiles and bombers, each of which can be deployed on duty. Moscow wants an extension to include newer systems. Following the withdrawal of the Mid-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, Russia also wants to conclude a deal under which neither country has any surface-to-air missiles in Europe. A similar idea was reported in the West in the media before Biden came to Europe.
Ukraine
The United States has been Ukraine’s most powerful ally since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. NATO leaders on Monday reiterated a 2008 decision that Ukraine could one day join, but Biden said Kiev must first eradicate corruption. and meet other criteria. Putin had said that for him Ukraine was a “red line” and he wanted Washington to stay away from it.
Ambassadors and consulates
The status of diplomatic missions is an area in which both sides believe there may be room for progress. Russia withdrew its ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Antonov, in March after Biden said he believed Putin was a “killer” while John Sullivan, the US ambassador to Moscow, returned to Washington for consultations in April. An agreement for both diplomats to return to their posts will send a signal that some progress has been made. There may also be room for a mini deal for visas and embassy staff.
Detained
Russia has detained former US Marine Paul Whelan on espionage charges and Trevor Reid, another former US Marine, for alleged assault on a police officer. Both deny wrongdoing. Their families are demanding their release before the summit. Asked if he would consider exchanging prisoners, Putin told NBC News: “Yes, yes, of course.”
Earlier, Whelan’s Russian lawyer suggested that Moscow would be interested in a deal that would return arms dealer Viktor Booth to Omaha, as well as Konstantin Yaroshenko, a pilot convicted of conspiracy to smuggle cocaine into the United States.
Belarus
The Kremlin has said it expects Putin and Biden to discuss Belarus, a close Russian ally in crisis last year. With the help of Moscow, Alexander Lukashenko has so far escaped the storm by carrying out brutal repression. The landing of a commercial plane last month and the arrest of a dissident on board sparked outrage in the West. Biden is likely to criticize Putin for his support for Lukashenko and ask him about plans to move forward with the two countries’ economic and political integration. Putin sees Belarus as part of Russia’s sphere of influence, and the two leaders are unlikely to reach any agreement.
Syria
Biden will ask Putin about Moscow’s apparent reluctance to continue a UN-backed cross-border aid operation in Syria, which is due to expire next month, and will call on Putin to support it, a US official said. Putin told NBC that Russia believes the West should distribute any aid it provides to Syria through the central government, accusing it of not doing so to avoid President Bashar al-Assad.
–
