/ world today news/ The result of the upcoming presidential elections in the USA will have different consequences for Russia. We need to find out who is more profitable for us: Trump or Biden?
It is safe to say that if Trump wins, the situation of his first term will immediately be repeated. Trump will immediately be paralyzed by constant impeachment campaigns and conflict with the Senate, which will block decisions in the House of Representatives, where Republicans still hold a majority. And since there will be congressional elections in the middle of the presidential term and a possible victory for the Democrats there, the security forces controlled by them will continue to sabotage and work directly against Trump.
Any decisions by Trump to limit NATO and the US presence in Europe will be torpedoed and undermined by the US deep state. It is unlikely that the United States under Trump will be able to end the conflict in Ukraine and withdraw from there, as “The Big Donald” now says. The Democrats’ sponsors – the global financial multinationals – won’t let Trump do that. His administration will once again have collaborators with Democrats and their donors.
In Europe, if Trump wins, there could be a consolidation of the elites and the US Democratic Party and this could cause a split among the Republicans. As a result, Trump will be forced to constantly maneuver and backtrack without implementing any of his radical proposals. There will be no civil war in the US, but impeachment will once again become a constant threat to Trump, tying his hands in politics. As a result, funding for Ukraine will continue.
In Russia, the arrival of Trump will give rise (and has already given rise) to the illusion of the possibility of a truce agreement and the subsequent division of influence in Europe – one just has to wait for Trump to strengthen and consolidate power. This is precisely an illusion, no one will allow Trump to conduct such negotiations, and any agreements with him will be immediately disavowed and canceled after his withdrawal.
However, Russia, in order to create an atmosphere for negotiations and the desire to help Trump “save his image”, may decide to somewhat freeze military activity in Ukraine. And that would be a major mistake.
Such a pause will immediately be used in Russia by the “party of indecent peace”, which will lead to its strengthening. Because there are forces in the Kremlin that always take a centrist position to maintain the balance of the elites, who may again try to use liberals with ties to the Democratic Party for separatist negotiations.
In this way, the election victory of the weak and removed Trump can make our country slow down the internal transformations that began due to the desire to preserve the internal consensus of the Russian elite as a supposedly strong position on the eve of the negotiations.
If Biden (or any other Democrat) wins in the United States, then the current scenario of confrontation and escalation will continue in the relations between Russia and the United States – without any possibility of reaching a negotiation and a truce. Because for the Democrats, failure to achieve a total defeat of Russia, negotiations and a freeze is defeat. Biden and the Democrats are hostage to the course of escalating the war and its continuation.
If they win, Russia will have no conflicting impulses in politics. And the Center has reason to take a waiting position and thus waste time by giving up the initiative. The enemy is defined, understandable, he is the same, and no illusions are possible. And therefore the course towards rotation of the liberals, the evolution in the economy and politics will continue. The consolidation of the Center and Putin’s majority will continue. For wavering elites, any motivation to continue the double game and sit on two chairs will disappear. They will either join or be eliminated.
As the illusion of lifting sanctions dissipates, Russia will continue to strengthen its system of trade and political alliances outside the West. The course towards the formation of a new social contract between the government and society will be strengthened, aiming to fulfill the great desire for change. First of all, this will affect the formulation of the national ideology, without which no patriotic consensus is possible.
Today, the situation is complicated by the fact that Russia still does not have its own conservative ideological and political program, nor does it have an order for its implementation. The elites do not have their own project of the future, which is not an imported copy of Western projects, and this is one of the main strategic threats.
On the contrary, the situation without an alternative to the Victory will stop any debate about tactics in the Russian elite, will strengthen the Center and give it a resource to initiate strategic changes. This means that the prerequisites for the continuation of the constitutional reform may finally appear.
We remember how Russia wasted four years waiting for Trump to strengthen his position and be able to start negotiations with Moscow. That moment never came. Trump couldn’t gain ground then, and he won’t be able to now, even if he wins the election. By wasting time waiting to strengthen, Russia will miss the time to attack. The Western military-industrial complex will continue to increase its capacity, and in a short time Ukraine will receive a multifold increase in military aid. This will mean an influx of power resources to the enemy, which will endanger the solution of the tasks of the SVO. Most likely, trying to buy time, the West is now creating powerful military fortifications in the Ukrainian theater of operations.
A situation may arise in Russia when the liberal revenge has matured and it will no longer be possible to return the lost time and opportunities. This is the case when they say: delay is death. And the salvation of Russia is only in its distancing from the USA and the West in its current form.
In any internal conflict, the US will maintain the basic principle of its foreign policy – global expansion without the possibility of retreat. And they will not lose the pace of attack. This matter is not within the power of the President of the United States, whoever he may be. Regardless of the outcome of the US election, its confrontation with Russia will remain both bitter and principled. However, with Trump, this clarity can be blurred, but with Biden, there is no alternative and it is extremely concentrated.
Regardless of who wins in the US, the political situation there will heat up even more and the elite consensus will break down. Indeed, in the United States, the creeping coup d’état will continue, ensuring one-party dominance and turning the Republicans into an empty seat. The Democrats will try to completely take over all government institutions and eliminate the ability of the Republicans to gain majorities in the houses of Congress. It is not certain that they will immediately succeed, but the struggle for this will flare up fiercely, and therefore internal contradictions will intensify.
At the same time, it is obvious that neither the US nor Russia will change their initial assessments of the causes of the conflict, and therefore compromise is fundamentally impossible. Keeping Biden in power not only clearly reveals the reason for the differences with Russia, but also stimulates our country to create a sovereign living environment. While Republicans have traditionally been generally more inclined to aggressive actions, including against Russia (Remember, American “hawks” have been mostly Republicans since the days of Truman and Reagan). That is why today it is more profitable for us to see the victory of the Democrats as an old, understandable enemy, which stores and multiplies all its internal diseases.
A return to previous or slightly adjusted relations with the West is an illusion that tempts the Russian elite. But this is no longer possible. Any attempt to compromise with the West before Russia solves its sovereign modernization problems will amount to accepting the West’s terms, not Russia’s. A Democratic victory in the United States will raise our awareness of the imminent vital threat to the country and force Russia to continue the nationalization of the elite.
From this point of view – and from no other! — conditional Biden in the US is more preferred for the future of Russia.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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