By Mark Murray – NBC News
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden brings him an advantage of more than 10 percentage points, nationwide, to President Donald Trump, according to a survey by NBC News, our sister network, and the newspaper The Wall Street Journal.
Seven out of 10 voters believe the country is going the wrong way, and most disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis and protests against racial inequality.
Those are the main findings of the survey, which took place three and a half months before the 2020 presidential elections, in the midst of a pandemic that has killed approximately 140,000 Americans, and during protests about racial discrimination in this country.
The survey shows Biden 11 points ahead of Trump among registered voters, with 51% of the preference for the Democrat against 40% of the Republican President.
Biden’s lead has grown 4 points since the last poll was conducted last month, when it brought Trump 49% to 42%.
Furthermore, the survey shows that the percentage of the public that approves of Trump’s work has decreased to 42%, its lowest level in two years.
“The environment and attitudes toward Donald Trump are the most challenging an acting president has faced since Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Lyndon Johnson in 1968,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, whose firm conducted this poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff. of Public Opinion Strategies. Neither of those two presidents managed to be reelected.
There is also good news for Republicans
The poll also finds positives for Trump and the Republican Party, as well as warning signs for Biden and the Democrats: most voters approve of the president’s handling of the economy; Biden’s personal approval has dropped since last month; and Democrats no longer have a lead of more than 10 points in preference in Congress.
“Now that Americans are dealing with the coronavirus and reflecting on racial prejudice, politically, a lot is being rearranged ”added Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. “We are a long way from knowing how all of this will play out in the minds of voters.”
Biden’s biggest advantages over Trump are with African American voters (80% vs. 6%), Latinos (67% vs. 22%), voters from 18 to 34 years old (62% against 23%), women (58% against 35%) and white voters with university degrees (53% against 38%).
Who prefers Trump?
Trump is ahead of white voters, 49% vs. 42%; men (45% -43%) and whites without a university degree (49% -38%).
Who do you prefer in the key states?
Biden leads Trump in the 11 most contested states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Carolina del Norte, Pensilvania y Wisconsin, where on average the Democrat leads by 12 points, 52% against 40%.
Also, half of voters, 50%, say there is no chance they will vote for Trump (compared to 37% who say the same about Biden).
While more respondents say they are excited to vote for Trump (23%) than Biden (14%), the poll reveals that Democratic voters are slightly more interested in the November election than Republicans.
Overall, 77% of voters have a high level of interest in the 2020 elections, expressing either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale, the highest level ever recorded for this question in the polls he has conducted NBC News and the WSJ since October 2012. 80% of Democrats express great interest, compared to 74% of Republicans.
Only 19% think the country is going in the right direction
The survey of NBC News / WSJ It also shows that 72% of voters believe the country is going the wrong way, a negative jump from 16 points since March.
42% approve of President Trump’s performance, 3 points less than in June.
That compares with 56% of those who disapprove of the president.
Solo a third approve of how Trump has handled the coronavirus, 6 points less than last month.
And only 33% approve of their handling of race relations.
But 54% of voters say they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, his best note on this issue since he became president.
Warning signs for Biden and the Democrats
Biden’s personal rating in the survey has dropped from 37% positive and 38% negative (-1) a month ago to 34% positive and 46% negative (-12) now.
Trump’s rating is 39%, 54% negative (-15).
In addition, the leadership of the Democrats in the preferences for the Congress has diminished 11 points, regarding the poll of NBC News / WSJ in June (51% vs. 40% for Republicans), to 4 points currently (47% to 43%).
About the coronavirus
He 74% of voters say they always wear a mask when shopping, working, or being around other people outside the home.
Last month, much less, 63% said the same. Much of the change came from Republican men.
And 57% of voters say they are more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress than focus more on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, compared to the 25% who are more likely to vote for a candidate who is more focused on reopening businesses.
The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points.
The NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll It was held from July 9 to 12 of 900 registered voters, more than half of whom were contacted by cell phone, and has a general margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points.
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