The likelihood of Belarus’ direct participation in the war against Ukraine remains low due to its influence on the country’s domestic politics. An invasion could change stability and even call into question the survival of the current political regime.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely putting pressure on Belarusian self-proclaimed President Alexander Lukashenko, so he is trying to support the Russian war in Ukraine, avoiding direct military intervention.
Lukashenka is expected to continue granting Russian troops access to Belarusian airspace to show Putin nominal support.
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