Analysts have calculated that Russian troops carried out fewer general offensives in the Bakhmut area in November and December than in October.
Russian forces are likely to find it difficult to maintain the pace of their offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and may try to initiate a tactical or operational pause, experts say.
The Russians do not currently have the necessary stock of artillery ammunition to support large-scale offensive operations.
Reports of heavy losses by Wagner mercenaries in the Bakhmut area in recent weeks have also likely affected the current operational capabilities of Russian forces in the area, analysts write.
The shortage of personnel and ammunition in the Russian army will probably not allow it to maintain the current high pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut region in the short term. Russian troops have previously committed significant resources to the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysichansk in the spring and summer of 2022. Russian forces culminated in the capture of Lisichansk in early July but failed to capture neighboring Seversk and Slavyansk.
The Russian military’s focus on pursuing a high attrition campaign to achieve the tactical objectives of capturing Severodonetsk and Lysichansk ultimately undermined the Russian military’s ability to achieve its larger operational goal of encircling Ukrainian forces along E40 and finally reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.
A costly Russian offensive on Bakhmut could also undermine its ability to pursue long-term goals in Donbass, ISW says.
Key findings from ISW analysts
- Ukrainian intelligence keeps suggesting that the Russian military is not following proper command structures or procedures.
- Russian troops continued to launch limited counterattacks to regain lost ground on the Kremennaya-Svatovo line.
- Russian troops continued to conduct offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka area.
- Russian special forces are likely conducting reconnaissance of the Dnieper delta to study the Ukrainian defense in the Kherson region on the right bank.
- Russian forces attacked a residential area in Kherson with a multiple launch rocket system.
- The Russian Orthodox Church has asked the Kremlin for an exemption from mobilization for its clergy, despite its vehement support for the war.
- Russian officials are planning to take the children from Gorlovka to Belarus, possibly as part of a plan to deport Ukrainian children.
Recall that we wrote this recently the invaders sometimes broke through to the outskirts of Bakhmut, but were driven out by the Ukrainian defenders.
It was also reported that a few days ago the Russians lost several positions near Bakhmut.
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