The Syrian civil war seems to have reached its final phase after almost a decade. The Syrian government army is steaming into the last major rebel stronghold, the province of Idlib. Syria and ally Russia have not only been confronted with these rebels, but also with neighboring country Turkey. Three questions about the situation in Idlib.
How did the Syrian government offensive come about in Idlib?
Idlib is the fourth and last of the so-called ‘de-escalation zones’ established in 2017 by Russia, Iran and Turkey. It is the last major stronghold of the Syrian rebels.
The other three (East Ghouta, near the capital Damascus, the southern provinces of Deraa and Quneitra, and part of the Homs province) were recaptured by the Syrian government army within a year. Rebel fighters and civilians who did not want to stay were given a free passage to Idlib.
The advance of the Syrian army to that province was temporarily interrupted by an agreement between Russia and Turkey, which Idlib proclaimed in 2018 as a “demilitarized zone”.
However, not much came of the deal between Ankara and Moscow. The rebel groups refused to adhere to the conditions, despite attempts by Turkey to convince them. Nor did the Russians oppose the Syrian army when it attacked the ‘demilitarized zone’.
On December 19, 2019, the Syrian government launched a new offensive to capture Idlib and parts of the neighboring province of Aleppo. The Syrian government army is supported by Russia and Iran, while Turkey is on the side of the rebels.
What is at stake for Turkey?
If Idlib falls, the Syrian opposition will be destroyed and will probably no longer play a role in negotiations about the future of Syria after a decade of civil war. That would be painful for Turkey, which has been supporting the rebels for years and with their defeat would no longer have a voice in that process.
Then there are the refugees. Since the start of the government offensive in Idlib, more than 900,000 people have fled according to the UN. In total, around three million citizens are threatened by the violence. Some 3.6 million Syrian refugees are already living in Turkey, where there is little support to receive even more of them.
The Turkish armed forces have a number of observation posts in Idlib and fights are also being fought around those posts. Fifteen Turkish soldiers were killed by the Syrian army in recent weeks. There is great public pressure on the Erdogan government to return the sacrifices and not to give up any of the posts.
Erdogan has announced an ultimatum: the Syrian army must retreat eastward from Idlib before the end of February. If Damascus doesn’t care, “Turkey will have to do the job itself”.
Will the Turks succeed in rescuing the Syrian rebels in Idlib?
Russia is the biggest stumbling block to Erdogan’s tough course. Military experts do not give Turkey much chance of a decisive victory in a direct conflict with Syria, especially since the Russians have deployed an advanced anti-aircraft missile system there.
In addition, the economic interests are great. After the Turkish army shot a Russian fighter jet near the Turkish-Syrian border in 2015, Moscow imposed an import ban on Turkish goods. That was a serious blow to the Turkish economy, forcing Erdogan to apologize to the Kremlin.
Since then the ties have become closer; the two countries trade with each other for around 23 billion euros in trade with each other and Russia is preparing Turkey as a hub for the transit of oil and gas to Southeast Europe. Ankara has also – to the dismay of NATO allies – purchased a Russian missile system (the same used in Syria).
Turkey hopes to be able to free Russia from its ally in Damascus, but Moscow is not yet receptive to that.
Ankara therefore also angles for American support. The US and NATO believe that action must be taken in Idlib, Turkey reported last week. A Pentagon spokesperson quickly denied: “No such agreement has been concluded.”
US President Donald Trump called on Russia last week to stop supporting Syrian President Assad’s regime and stop bombing civilians in Idlib.
The population of Idlib has fled en masse, but cannot go anywhere. Residents flee en masse to the border with Turkey. A huge humanitarian disaster is imminent. You can read more about that on Sunday at NU.nl.
– .
