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Requests European Union Member States have reserves of Gas At least 80% of its storage capacity by November 1st.
In his statement to the site "Sky News Arabia" Energy expert Philip Charles considered it "This stock will not be enough to cover next winter"adding it "It will cover Europe’s needs for a maximum of two or three months".
Carlo explained: "European countries will not risk waiting for these stocks to run out, but will look for new and daily supplies that will be protected from a bigger crisis. Gas is an important source of production electricity In Europe, 20% of European electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants. The rarer it becomes, the higher its price. This has a direct impact on the price of electricity".
He continued: "It should be noted that imported gas is not mainly used for electricity generation in Europe, because most of it is used for heating, 50 percent, and 30 percent by industry, and then for 20 per cent for electricity generation.".
What if War in Ukraine It exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe, with the interruption of Russian gas supplies, it did not create this situation.
Before the war, energy prices were already structurally high due to the energy transition, the pivotal role of gas and the rise dollar.
This is what Carlo confirms by saying: "This crisis was expected, but it was not dealt with well in advance by politicians and the Ukrainian crisis has made matters worse.".
Prosthetic solutions in the face of the storm
To avoid possible gas shortages and power outages, European countries are taking several basic measures: EU member states have pledged to reduce gas consumption by at least 15 percent between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023.
In Germany and France, the heating temperature of the departments will not exceed 19 degrees Celsius and soon bright announcements will be banned between one and six in the morning in France in most public places.
In Spain it is limited conditioner At 27 degrees in shops, cinemas, theaters, airports and stations.
Furthermore, countries that have preferred renewable energies as a primary option for energy production are looking to double their number and expand their areas of use.
Energy policy expert Fabian Bogli considers these solutions "remain insufficient"explaining it "The dependence on renewable energies leads to the great need for excavations. How European countries get rid of Nuclear reactors Nord Stream 1 will gradually stop, the crisis will not be resolved".
And Bogli indicated it "The only solution for Europe is to stop investing in renewable energy and to deal with nuclear reactors and build new ones alongside old ones".
He added: "Thanks to nuclear power, the price in France in 2020 was 32.2 euros per megawatt hour and with the gas crisis that began in 2021 due to the lower production of wind turbines in Europe, the spot price reached an average of 109 euros per megawatt hour. throughout the year The futures market has set a spot price of € 1,000 per megawatt hour, which will expire in 2023".
He pointed this out "The electricity market in Europe is currently in a frenzy, partly due to the strong and growing demand for natural gas, especially from countries that have invested heavily in wind turbines, and due to the abandonment of nuclear energy. Germany".
What worries Bogli is this "In this period of electricity shortages, countries in deficit will have to import from neighboring countries, a phenomenon that increases the inflation of electricity prices. So in the winter, if nothing is done to restart nuclear power plants, we will see a new increase in spot prices which in turn will affect the bills of businesses and households.".
As for Charles, he explained that in the event of a severe shortage of energy resources Thanks to the coming winter, this will cause a severe economic crisis in Europe and the sector will be the hardest hit.
According to his speech, countries asking to reduce energy consumption by 10 to 20 percent, their demand is not in line with their demand with economic growth, indicating by saying: "In 2020, with the spread of the Corona epidemic, energy consumption in France fell by 20%, but in return there was an economic recession of 6%. This is what could happen next year with better solutions winter".
On the other hand, the economist "Economy of Oxford" For World Economic Forecasting and Econometric Analysis, Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, in connection with the site "Sky News Arabia" That in the long run, and while all expectations tended to confirm a drop in gas prices on the markets by 2023, however, after the Russian president’s speech, Vladimir Putin With current geopolitical developments, and if things get worse than the ongoing war in Ukraine, this means that the price of commodities will remain high, and thus the economic crisis will rise, deepen and lengthen, and the unemployment rate will increase in addition to many social problems.
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Requests European Union Member States have reserves of Gas At least 80% of its storage capacity by November 1st.
In his statement to “Sky News Arabia”, an energy expert, Philip Charles, felt that “this stock will not be enough to cover next winter”, adding that “it will cover Europe’s needs for a maximum of two or three months. . “
Charles explained: “European countries will not risk waiting for these stocks to run out, but they will seek new daily supplies to protect themselves from a bigger crisis. Gas is an important source of production. electricity In Europe, 20% of European electricity is generated by gas-fired power plants. The rarer it becomes, the higher its price. This has direct consequences on the price of electricity “.
He continued: “It should be noted that imported gas is not mainly used for electricity generation in Europe, because most of it is used for heating, 50 percent, and 30 percent by industry, and therefore for the 20 percent for electricity generation. “
What if War in Ukraine It exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe, with the interruption of Russian gas supplies, it did not create this situation.
Before the war, energy prices were already structurally high due to the energy transition, the pivotal role of gas and the rise dollar.
This is what Charles confirms by saying: “This crisis was foreseen, but it was not dealt with well in advance by the politicians and the Ukrainian crisis has made things worse”.
Prosthetic solutions in the face of the storm
To avoid possible gas shortages and power outages, European countries are taking several basic measures: EU member states have pledged to reduce gas consumption by at least 15 percent between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023.
In Germany and France, the heating temperature of the departments will not exceed 19 degrees Celsius and soon bright announcements will be banned between one and six in the morning in France in most public places.
In Spain it is limited conditioner At 27 degrees in shops, cinemas, theaters, airports and stations.
Furthermore, countries that have preferred renewable energies as a primary option for energy production are looking to double their number and expand their areas of use.
An energy policy expert, Fabian Bogli, believes that these solutions “remain insufficient”, explaining that “the dependence on renewable energies entails a strong need for excavations. Nuclear reactors Nord Stream 1 will be phased out, the crisis will not be resolved “.
And Bogli indicated that “the only solution for Europe is to stop investing in renewable energy and focus on nuclear reactors and build new ones alongside the old ones”.
He added: “Thanks to nuclear power, the price in France in 2020 was 32.2 euros per megawatt hour and with the gas crisis that began in 2021 due to the decline in wind turbine production in Europe, the spot price reached 109 euros. per megawatt-hour on average During the year, the futures market set a spot price of € 1,000 per megawatt-hour, which expires in 2023.
He stressed that “the electricity market in Europe is currently in a state of madness, partly due to the strong and growing demand for natural gas, especially from countries that have invested heavily in wind turbines, and for moving away from ‘ nuclear energy, and the crisis was exacerbated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict which destabilized the stability of gas supply in countries such as Germany“.
What worries Bogli is that “in this period of electricity shortage, the deficit countries will have to import from neighboring countries, which is a phenomenon that increases the inflation of electricity prices. So in winter, if nothing is done to restart the business. In nuclear power plants, we will see a new rise in spot prices, which in turn will affect the bills of companies and households. “
As for Charles, he explained that in the event of a severe shortage of energy resources Thanks to the coming winter, this will cause a severe economic crisis in Europe and the sector will be the hardest hit.
According to his speech, countries asking to reduce energy consumption by 10 to 20 percent, their demand is not in line with their demand with economic growth, noting saying: “In 2020, with the spread of the epidemic of Corona, energy consumption in France fell by 20 per cent, but in return there was a recession of 6 per cent, as could happen next year with better solutions winter“.
In turn, the economist of Oxford Economics for global economic forecasts and econometric analysis, Ricardo Marcelli Fabiani, believed, in connection with the site “Sky News Arabia”, that in the long run, while all expectations were moving towards the confirmation of the drop in gas prices in the markets by 2023. However, after the speech of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin With current geopolitical developments, and if things get worse than now regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine, this means that the price of commodities will remain high, and thus the economic crisis will increase, deepen and lengthen, and the the unemployment rate will rise in addition to many social problems.
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