The pandemic has changed almost everything in Portuguese politics. The Government and the parties were forced to review their strategies and António Costa gained an unusual role. The Prime Minister appears almost every day to outline the strategy to face the pandemic. In fact, never before has a head of government given so many interviews and given so many daily statements to the media, as well as making messages to the country. António Costa, as normally happens with political and institutional leaders in cases of serious crisis such as the covid-19 pandemic, has skyrocketed in popularity to indices rarely seen – rivaling even the President of the Republic.
But does excessive public exposure favor the Prime Minister or is there a risk of starting to show signs of wear and tear?
Rodrigo Moita de Deus argues that António Costa’s exposure since the pandemic began in Portugal has been “normal”. “In times of crisis, it is normal for stakeholders to try to occupy as much communication space as possible,” he explains to SOL, adding that the Prime Minister’s most frequent presence in the public space during the last four months is almost “mandatory”. «Even to avoid misinformation and rumors», he explains.
The consultant, who has been linked to several election campaigns, explains that, in theory, this exposure by the Prime Minister should erode his image. «The Prime Minister has to assume a series of positions that are not his, that is, he is not a specialist in virology or epidemiology, and he has to rely absolutely on the cadres and institutions with whom he works, in this case, public institutions . The wear and tear is all there ”, he explains, before stating that, in practice, what happens is that António Costa has been committing himself to things that he does not have the technical knowledge to commit to.
Between ‘normal’ and ‘excessive’
Although this is a global crisis, which, therefore, cannot be compared with internal crises, Rodrigo Moita de Deus considers that it is possible to compare with other cases. «In Portugal, there is a lot of this thing about politicians taking on the pains of the machine, when they speak as if they have to be specialists», he says, giving the example of ex-defense minister Azeredo Lopes when the Tancos case. “The Defense Minister talking about Tancos was talking about a network, and there is a whole hierarchical chair under him who is directly responsible for the network – but he responded as if he were responsible for the network”, he explains
Carlos Abreu Amorim, on the other hand, affirms that, during the last months, there was clearly an overexposure, but he does not attribute it only to the Prime Minister.
At SOL, the former PSD deputy argues that government officials and even Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had an “unusual” media stage.
«I think there was, clearly, an attempt by the Government to take advantage of the media for its own benefit, trying to give the idea that they were developing and executing a very worked strategy to respond to the pandemic and, specifically, afterwards, with the beginning lack of definition, ”he said.
The commentator states, however, that the “problem” of the intention of the media exposure is when it is “contradicted by reality”. “I think that, at this point, we can already conclude that there was no lack of strategy,” he said, explaining that, on the contrary, there was a lot of political propaganda and a spin doctor of political marketing. “The lack of definition did not work because there was no government strategy”, he accuses, affirming that the only strategy that existed was the media, not only of the prime minister, but of other ministers.
To SOL, Carlos Abreu Amorim also states that the “wisest decision of recent times that was made at that level” was that the daily press conferences will be held three times a week. «That, in fact, was starting to become a painful spectacle, such were the contradictions that existed and the absolutely poignant lack of strategy and line of direction», he says, referring to the lack of definition.
Carlos Abreu Amorim also argues that this communication strategy is not a form of action resulting from the pandemic, since the policy for this Government is not related, in his view, either to the “logic of public policies” or to the “execution of the public interest. ». «It is José Sócrates’ policy, but with the new packaging. The objective is this: to hide mistakes, camouflage nonexistences and exalt what seems to be a success », he says.
Regarding the future, Rodrigo Moita de Deus confesses that he fears that the Government’s contradictions will be reflected in a greater distance from people in relation to political power and, consequently, in the growth of abstention, which has already reached records, reaching 45, in the last legislatures, 5%.
Carlos Abreu Amorim, on the other hand, recognizes that the success that the Executive’s communication policy has had may result in the future, as it happened at the time of the 2017 fires. «Both the Pedrogão fires and the fires across the country eventually, they would be sufficient in any mature democracy for the Government to be penalized electorally. The communication practice of the spin doctors was such that it did not happen », he defends, stating that, as happened three years ago, there will be no« electoral punishment ».
A Government with very few with political weight
António Costa has recently lost some politically significant ministers. Viera da Silva, who was one of the most experienced ministers, left political life and did not transition to the new government. Mário Centeno had no political experience when he joined the Government, but he became a central figure and gained weight at European level.
António Costa Pinto reminds SOL that «for quite a number of years» that the way in which Portuguese Governments, both PS and PSD, were trained, points «to a great political centrality of the Prime Minister». “From this point of view, the departure of Mário Centeno does not basically change the political weight of the prime minister,” says the politologist.
Augusto Santos Silva and Pedro Nuno Santos are probably the most political ministers within the PS. The two fueled an ideological discussion at the last congress. Augusto Santos Silva defended, at that time, that “the future of the democratic left is not in political or programmatic radicalization (…) The path, therefore, is not to oscillate to the extremes, but to maintain the autonomy of our central positioning”.
Pedro Nuno Santos does not hide the ambition to reach the leadership of the party and, unlike Santos Silva, defends a party more turned to the left. The ex-leader of JS was one of the main defenders of ‘contraption’ and went to the last congress of the party to defend that the party’s path must be on the side of the people of the left. “The PS can only, only deserves, will only maintain a majority in the country if it does not stop talking to these people, who are the people who have always been at the origin of parties like ours,” said the now Minister of Infrastructure and Housing.
António Costa does not like the protagonism that Pedro Nuno Santos assumes at certain times, but the ex-leader of JS does not stop building his path. Everyone in the party knows that he will be a candidate for leadership with the PS flag. At that time, it is inevitable to return to the discussion about the PS position.
The next congress was postponed due to the pandemic. Thus, the discussion on the presidential elections is left out of the congress. António Costa opened the door to eventual support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, but ended up postponing that discussion until later. Even within the board there are those who prefer to support their own candidate. The other hypothesis on the table is to give militants the freedom to vote. Figures like Carlos César, Ferro Rodrigues, João Soares and Jorge Coelho have already admitted to supporting the current President of the Republic. The decision should be taken by the end of the year.
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