and now what scenario for the epidemic?

DECRYPTION – The most worrying hypothesis is that of “seasonal flu”, with a low mortality rate but a considerable number of infected people.

People wearing a preventive mask in Bangkok.
People wearing a preventive mask in Bangkok. Soe Zeya Tun / REUTERS /

Only one month has passed since China published the genetic portrait of the new coronavirus that appeared in the city of Wuhan in December 2019. And everyone wonders if the situation is as serious as the images from China seem to indicate. . What can happen now?

First scenario, the 2019-nCoV epidemic (provisional name given by the WHO) remains essentially confined to China, despite some cases exported elsewhere by travelers. This is the “Mers-CoV scenario”, named after this other coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) which appeared in Saudi Arabia in June 2012 and in a few neighboring countries, notably Qatar and Jordan. In Saudi Arabia, 71% of the cases recorded in the world are found (mainly in 2014-2015). Since 2012, more than 2,400 cases of Mers-CoV have been detected in 27 countries, including 8 European countries (including France). With around 800 deaths, mortality is very high (33%) but the virus, without disappearing,

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