When Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, fierce resistance by the country’s armed forces and overwhelming Western support for Kiev – along with some apparent military excesses by Moscow – raised hopes that the Ukrainian military would be able to repel the invading forces.
Two years on, hopes for a Ukrainian victory appear increasingly dim, as do Western pledges of support for Ukraine.
Currently, billions of dollars in US military aid remains unapproved, with the potential for more future conflicts, war fatigue growing and funding shortfalls in the run-up to the US presidential election – a vote that could see the installation of an administration less sympathetic to the Ukraine war.
On the battlefield, the front lines have been largely static for months, except for recent gains by Russian forces in the east of the country.
A Russian soldier stands near a destroyed building in Avdiivka (Reuters)
Kiev continues to insist that it is not getting the right tools to fight Russia most effectively, and there have been reports of declining morale among front-line forces facing shortages of ammunition and personnel. Internal political frictions and the replacement of the popular military leader, General Valery Zaloghny, also raised concerns about the military strategy moving forward.
James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia program at think tank Chatham House, said: “This year is the toughest for Ukraine so far in this war, partly because of anxiety about replacing Zalogny and withdrawing from Avdiivka, but mostly, because of the enormous uncertainty over… The level of Western assistance,” according to a CNBC report.
He continued: “I think that for Ukraine, there is very little difference between a president who cannot provide lethal aid and a president who will not provide lethal aid. “For Ukrainians, this is the same thing, an existential question.” Nixie added: “So Russian President Vladimir Putin is not really betting everything he can on Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump because he believes he is capable of winning whatever the outcome of the US elections in November.”
“In other words, Putin feels this weakness, as he has often done in the past, and he is absolutely right,” he said. It remains to be seen whether his confidence is justified, but at least he knows more or less what he has at his disposal this summer, this time next year or even after that, and Ukraine simply cannot say the same.
While the West this year is likely to be dominated by political infighting ahead of elections in the US, UK and EU Parliament, “Russia faces none of these constraints,” Nixey said, noting that Moscow is “prepared to inflict a significant amount of Damage to Russia itself in the pursuit of victory.
Smoke rises from a building in Bakhmut, the site of the heaviest battles with Russian forces in the Donetsk region (AP)
Strengthening Russian confidence
Russia certainly appears motivated as the war enters its third year, its confidence boosted by recent advances – last week’s capture of Avdiivka was the most significant victory in nine months, followed by smaller territorial gains this week – and the elimination of political opponents at home, ahead of next month’s presidential election.
It goes without saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to win the vote easily, especially since most critics live in self-imposed exile, are banned from political participation, are imprisoned or dead, the last of whom was Alexei Navalny, who died in a remote prison in the Arctic last week.
While the fates of war are unpredictable, political analysts point out that Russia holds a lot of cards regarding what happens in the war.
Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO and special envoy to Ukraine, told CNBC that he found there was “a lot of anxiety about the West and the United States, in particular” during his conversations with regional officials and leaders. Military personnel in Ukraine.
“Are we going to provide Ukraine with the levels of military and economic support that we have provided, which they still need?” he asked. Because without that, they worry that Russia will have more resources, will continue to put pressure on the front, will continue to buy drones and missiles and fire them at Ukrainian cities, and so this war will continue as it is – not necessarily with huge losses but as It is – without regaining the lands.
Russian soldiers walk through the rubble near a destroyed car in Avdiivka, Ukraine (Reuters)
Russia is counting the gains
In the first months of the war in Ukraine in the spring of 2022, Russian military strategy and tactics were often criticized and ridiculed, especially when Russian forces had to quickly retreat on the northern front after a failed attempt to reach the capital, Kiev.
At the time, Russian forces were widely viewed as ill-equipped, poorly trained and disorganized, but defense analysts noted that the Russian military had adapted and that a more organized, coordinated and reactive armed force emerged last year, according to a CNBC report.
No one is now mocking Russia’s military tactics, with troops holed up in highly empowered defensive positions that thwarted a Ukrainian counterattack last summer, or waging offensive operations, mostly in eastern Ukraine, according to the report.
The army was emboldened by the capture of Avdiivka in Donetsk after months of fierce fighting. Putin described this as an “absolute success,” adding that he “needs to build on it.”
Analysts say that the victory came at an opportune moment for Putin before the elections scheduled for March 15 and 17, and that Russia was looking to “create panic in the Ukrainian information space and weaken Ukrainian morale.”
Ukrainian soldiers operate a German anti-aircraft gun near the city of Odessa in southern Ukraine (EPA)
Russia has neither confirmed nor denied that up to 47,000 Russian soldiers, according to Ukrainian estimates, may have died in the long battle for Avdiivka. While it is impossible to obtain accurate and up-to-date figures, the total number of soldiers killed or wounded in the war, on both sides, is about 500,000, US officials said last August.
Analysts point out that what matters to Moscow is what Avdiyivka’s victory would look like to the Russian people before the election – and what signal it sends to the West; That is, Russia is in a state of long-term war, and it is determined to achieve its goals in Ukraine, whatever the cost.
workforce
Currently, Russia occupies nearly a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, and has demonstrated its ability to mobilize hundreds of thousands of men to fight at will, highlighting another advantage it has over Ukraine, which has been ashamed of the need to mobilize more civilians to fight.
Volker explained: “I believe that as long as Putin is in power, the war will continue, because he does not care how many Russians he kills, and that he will continue to unleash wave after wave (of individuals) on the front lines… and kill tens and tens of thousands.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (AP)
The Ukrainian army called for the mobilization of an additional 500,000 soldiers, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his concern, describing it as a “sensitive” issue. The mobilization was a “hot-button issue between the government and the military” that could no longer be avoided, according to David Kirichenko, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis.
He continued: “What is clear is that Ukraine has no choice but to mobilize more people.” He pointed out that the men and women who have been fighting for 23 months are suffering from severe fatigue and heavy losses.
Kirychenko said: “The dispute over mobilization is occurring at a time when most of the authorized US military aid is close to being exhausted and Congress has not yet passed a new aid package… Ukraine was forced to temporarily stop many of its military operations due to a lack of weapons, and the situation on the front appears difficult. For now, at least, the fighting is largely attritional, which is to Russia’s advantage. However, there is no indication that Ukraine will end its resistance.”
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2024-02-24 07:17:35
