The general election is less than two months away… Is there a ‘hidden ticket’?
Seoul The People Power Party is well within the margin of error. Outside the margin of error, the Democratic Party is ahead. Support for the Democratic Party is high among those in their 20s, 30s, 40s, and 50s. Even in the last general election, when the People Power Party won a landslide victory among those in their 60s and older, exit polls also failed to predict due to hidden votes. There may not be many hidden votes in the election, but the low response rate among women in their 30s is ‘unusual’
There are less than two months left until the 22nd general election. As district candidates have not been confirmed in earnest, the results of the opinion polls by district are not yet available. At this stage, the only way to predict the election is through party approval ratings. The author has been collecting and analyzing the results of all political party approval ratings registered with the Central Public Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee (hereinafter referred to as the Women’s Review Committee) since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol government. In this analysis, the approval ratings for the president and political parties are estimated after correcting for the unique tendencies of each research company. Therefore, confusion caused by Jung-gu Heating’s individual opinion poll results can be minimized. ▲ Politics – Elections – 21st general election – Vote count – Yeongdeungpo-gu Election Commission
Considering the trend in public opinion polls, it is analyzed that there will not be many ‘hidden votes’ in the 22nd general election, unlike in the past. The photo shows the vote counting scene from the 21st general election four years ago. Seoul Shinmun DB, for example, looking at the trends of each opinion poll company estimated by the research team, companies such as ‘Opinion Poll Flower’ have estimated the approval rating of the Democratic Party of Korea (Democratic Party) by an average of 8.0% points higher than other companies. Even when compared to companies surveyed using the same automated response system (ARS), the estimate was 9.2% points higher on average. On the other hand, companies such as ‘Public Opinion Research Process’ have estimated the People Power Party’s approval rating by an average of 6.1% points higher than other companies, and 4.3% points higher than other ARS companies. After correcting for these trends by company, we estimated the approval ratings for political parties.
According to the survey released until February 7, the approval rating for the National Power Party was estimated to be about 37.7% and the Democratic Party’s approval rating was estimated to be about 38.1%, so the two parties were almost tied. Even if you look at each interview mode, it was a close match. In the relatively reliable phone interview, it was 35.6% (National Power Party) to 35.8% (Democratic Party), and in ARS, the score was tied to one decimal place at 38.9%. In short, it is a close battle in which it is difficult to determine superiority or inferiority.
Even if you look at it by region, a tight election is expected. We estimated the approval rating for each political party after correcting the tendencies of each survey company, targeting only relatively reliable phone interview surveys. ▲ Page 25 First, most public opinion polls divide the country into seven regions to secure a minimum sample. In four regions (Seoul, Daegu, Gyeongbuk, Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam, Gangwon, and Jeju), the national power was superior, and in three regions (Gyeonggi, Incheon, Daejeon, Sejong, Chungcheong, and Gwangju and Jeolla), the Democratic Party was found to be superior. However, since only telephone interview surveys with relatively high reliability were considered, the surveys themselves were not large and the number of samples per region in each survey was small, so the confidence interval was bound to be wide. Therefore, the regions that showed a clear advantage were the two national power groups (Daegu, Gyeongbuk, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam) and the two Democratic parties (Gyeonggi, Incheon, Gwangju, and Jeolla). In the end, it can be seen that no party is clearly ahead outside of traditional areas of dominance.
In particular, in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do, which can be seen as the biggest battlegrounds, the two political parties were divided. In Seoul, although it is within the margin of error, the National Power Party is doing well (33.8% to 32.0%), and in Gyeonggi Province, the Democratic Party is ahead (30.2% to 37.1%), but outside the margin of error.
By age group, the Democratic Party was ahead among those in their 20s (19.3% vs. 27.0%), 30s (24.7% vs. 31.3%), 40s (19.2% vs. 48.1%), and 50s (30.0% vs. 42.3%), and only among those in their 60s or older. The national power (57.0% to 27.5%) was dominant. Approval ratings by age group clearly show the limits of the expandability of national power. However, although the difference in approval ratings between the two parties in those in their 20s and 30s is not small, the difference between each survey is quite large, so the Democratic Party cannot be considered to be superior to the extent of being clearly outside the margin of error. ▲ If you look closely at the numbers on page 25, you will see support for both parties in 2030. The proportion of respondents who revealed was only 46.3% and 56.0%. In other words, less than half of respondents in their 20s and 30s said they supported one of the two political parties. On the other hand, unlike the current opinion polls, the exit polls from the last presidential election show that the Democratic Party’s advantage in 2030 was minimal or non-existent. Rather, it appears that national power is slightly ahead among people in their 30s. Therefore, it seems difficult to predict the votes of 2030 in this general election based solely on the current party approval rating.
So, will there be ‘hidden votes’ in this general election? Looking at the party approval ratings shown in public opinion polls so far, it seems difficult for any party to easily guarantee dominance. The overall approval rating is almost 100%. Looking at the approval ratings in the metropolitan area, the Democratic Party appears to have a clear advantage in Gyeonggi and Incheon, but it is similar in Seoul. Since it is a close match, it is natural that there will be interest in whether there is a ‘hidden vote’.
There have been many cases in the past where pre-election polls collapsed due to ‘hidden votes’. Even in the case of general elections, exit polls targeting voters who actually came out to vote have rarely been able to get the number of seats for each political party correct within the margin of error since the first introduction in the 16th election until the 21st election. In the 20th general election in 2016, only two out of three broadcasting companies predicted the number of seats within the margin of error. Even in the last general election, in which the Democratic Party won overwhelmingly, the exit polls of the three broadcasting companies failed. ▲ Page 25 In the last presidential election, after collecting and analyzing the results of all public opinion polls, the author predicted that President Yoon Seok-yeol would win by 3.7% points, but in reality, it was only 0.73%. It was a percentage point difference. The cause was ‘hidden votes’, or non-sampling error. The reason was that the participation rate in public opinion polls among Representative Lee Jae-myung’s supporters was relatively lower than that of President Yoon’s supporters.
In a preliminary survey conducted for a media company’s prediction survey during the last presidential election, the joint research team to which the author belongs attempted to make phone calls a total of three times, unlike general public opinion polls. At that time, there was a significant difference in approval ratings between respondents who responded to the survey in the first phone attempt and those who responded to the survey in the third attempt. Among the respondents who participated in the survey in the first phone attempt, President Yoon was ahead of President Lee with 37.1% to 33.3%, but among the respondents who responded to the survey in the third attempt, Representative Lee was ahead of President Yoon with 29.7% to 37.6%. This suggests that there was a so-called ‘shy’ phenomenon among this representative’s supporters.
Likewise, when analyzing about 600 presidential election polls announced at the time, the poll participation rate among female voters in their 20s and 30s was particularly low. The actual number of female voters in their 20s was about 90.8% of male voters, but in the phone interview survey it was only 82.4% and in the ARS it was only 77.6%. The problem is that, as was well known at the time, due to the conflict between men and women, there were far more supporters of President Yoon among men in their 20s and 30s and more supporters of Representative Lee among women, but contrary to opinion polls, the actual voter turnout among women in their 20s and 30s was actually higher than that of men. At the time, the low response rate from women in their 20s could have been a clue to the existence of ‘Shy Lee Jae-myung’ voters. ▲ Page 25 Will there be such ‘hidden votes’ in this general election? Among the registered surveys conducted by the Central Public Opinion Research Deliberation Committee from January to February 8, we selected the ratio of female to male respondents by age group from 24 telephone interview surveys with relatively high response rates. The gap with reality in the proportion of female respondents in their 20s appears to have narrowed compared to the last presidential election. In particular, in the 20s, when the difference in personality between men and women was greatest, it was almost exactly the same as reality.
Although the ratio of men and women in their 30s (0.685) was still much lower than that of actual voters (0.937), various interpretations are possible because the difference in proclivities between men and women in their 30s was not as large as in their 20s during the last presidential election. Among those in their 30s, the Democratic Party shows a 6.6 percentage point higher approval rating than the National Power Party, which may show the possibility of the Democratic Party’s ‘hidden vote’. In the last presidential election exit poll, President Yoon had a slightly higher approval rating among those in their 30s, so they are currently responding. It is also possible to interpret that women in their 30s who do not do well show the possibility of the existence of a ‘hidden vote’ for national power.
Although we are cautious, looking at the current party approval ratings, it seems likely that this general election will be a close contest of all time. Of course, it may vary depending on which opinion poll you look at, but based on the overall interview survey, which has relatively high reliability, there do not seem to be many ‘hidden votes’. It is unusual that the response rate among women in their 30s is quite low. I think it’s time to get used to these close elections brought about by extreme political polarization.
Professor, Department of Journalism and Information, Seoul National University
(Political Communication)
2024-02-19 16:50:48
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