In the reconquered areas of the Kharkiv region, the finding of dead civilians has been reported in several towns and villages. In Izium, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, a mass grave was found where several victims bear the marks of torture. The images from there shock the whole world. They are reminiscent of images of Butsha, or of other cities that the Russians occupied in Ukraine.
Why did the Russians apparently commit such atrocities against a neighboring people? Military strategy professor Tormod Heier at the Norwegian Staff School points out this:
– The pattern is clear: Russian assaults coincide with military forces suffering from weak leadership, lack of training in densely populated areas, poor knowledge of international law of war, as well as great physical and psychological wear. Coupled with the lack of additional supplies, this could prove to be a dangerous combination, Heier tells NTB.
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– Empty without law
He says the abuses may also be an expression of Russian forces experiencing the war as a lawless void, where force is right and the strongest actors decide.
– In this picture, Ukrainian civilians are demonized, made suspicious and occasionally killed. This may be partly due to the fact that Russian military doctrine justifies brutal violence when the interests of the state are at stake. But also because the basic rules governing the use of force within forces are atmospheric agents, Heier says.
It can be as simple as the fact that soldiers do not have good role models among their leaders, but also that the dissatisfaction with leadership is great as soldiers do not know why they are fighting or obtain the necessary supplies of food, medicine and spare parts. set off.
Over time, such weaknesses can tear down the moral compass of many soldiers, simply because extreme physical and psychological stress in units is not handled well enough, Heier says.
Condemned
Izium’s images have been met with condemnation in the West, including Norway.
– Very serious reports of mass graves and atrocities committed in areas of Ukraine recently liberated from Russian occupation. All human rights violations and possible war crimes must be investigated. Those responsible must be brought to justice and held accountable, says Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt.
According to Reuters Russia did not comment on the discoveries of tombs in Izium. They regularly deny committing war crimes or targeting civilians.
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Scary cards can come into play
At the same time, the Russian military is the subject of strong criticism at home, including on state television. There is talk of collapse and failure in Kharkiv, where the Russians have been forced to flee and Ukraine has advanced in a lightning-fast offensive.
Everyone is wondering what Russia will do now.
– Russian side losses increase unpredictability within Russia and thus also on the Ukrainian battlefield, Heier says.
So far the Russians have responded with attacks on civilian infrastructure. It will have little military significance, Heier believes. This is because Russia does not have enough forces in place to follow such attacks with ground forces.
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– But the Russian collapse in eastern Ukraine can bring a frightening card into the conflict, and this is the threat to force a military solution in Ukraine with the help of tactical nuclear weapons, Heier says.
– So far this hasn’t happened. But as the fighting situation on the ground becomes more precarious, it will also be more closely linked to Putin’s position of power at home. Besides, it’s never nice to see what can happen. Unpredictability is probably the best word to describe the situation, says the professor.
On Saturday evening it was reported that Russia has launched several counterattacks. It is not yet clear how it will develop. Experts like Tor Bukkvoll of the Defense Research Institute and Julie Wilhelmsen of the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy warned ahead of the weekend that Russia could escalate the brutality of its attacks in Ukraine.
The cautious offensive continues
At the same time, the Ukrainian counter-offensive appears to continue in the south and Donbas. In Kherson, there are constant reports that Ukrainians are slowly but surely attacking the Russians – partly with Western weapons – in a war of attrition.
Heier points out that Ukraine also has its limitations, even though the general staff in Kiev has mobilized a lasting force of between 500,000 and 700,000 troops.
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– But what we see is that the Ukrainian forces are a little cautious, they do not enter decisive battles against the Russians where they are strongest. It is wise and it means that Ukrainians have a systematic and long-term perspective on how to wear down the Russian counterpart, the professor points out.
– In part by attacking the critical support points for transport, logistics and command apparatus. And partly by breaking up and isolating Russian forces into small pockets so that they are unable to give each other support through local force rallies and counterattacks, he says.
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