Donald Trump is confident of victory. Image: AP
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analysis
5-minute farce or Trump debacle – what will happen tomorrow in the impeachment process
Tomorrow begins in the US Senate what is already described as the “greatest political spectacle ever”: the impeachment process. And you have to know that.
Not because of the “biggest political spectacle”: it could be over in a few minutes. That is when a senator requests a vote on whether the case should be dismissed without hearings. If a simple majority of the senators agree, the fire is already over.
Donald Trump and his court rapporteur at Fox News have loudly campaigned for such a «dismissal». Probably nothing will come of it. The strong man in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader, doesn’t think it’s a good idea. He rightly fears that such an act would even offend some Grand Old Party (GOP) senators and cause unflattering headlines across the country.
A strange couple: Mitch McConnell (left) and Donald Trump. PICTURED: EPA / Getty Images North America POOL
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Despite being completely different, Trump and McConnell have found each other in the past three years. The narcissistic president and the silent majority leader have become a functioning, albeit strange, couple. Trump appreciates McConnell’s cunning and detailed knowledge. Conversely, McConnell has accepted Trump’s cult status and publicly declared that he would coordinate all of his steps with the White House.
McConnell will therefore do everything in the President’s interests to get the process as quick and smooth as possible. Rumor has it that he should even order that the senators have to stay in Congress for twelve hours over the next four days in order to hear the charges first and then the replica.
They are not allowed to ask questions or leave the hall. Likewise, no sound recordings or phone calls are permitted. McConnell has also ordered that only one TV camera is allowed to record what is happening.
Has shown where to go: Nancy Pelosi. Picture: EPA
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These are a few of the few rules that are known so far. Otherwise, surprises are possible at any time, because one of the special features of the impeachment process is that the rules are not clearly defined, but are decided by a majority of the senators.
This also applies to the hotly contested witness question. Witnesses are heard in every normal process. However, the Republicans took the standpoint in the impeachment process that this was no longer necessary, arguing that the Democrats in the House of Representatives had missed summoning the witnesses.
This accusation is absurd. The President has banned all of his employees, including the former, from witnessing the hearings. It could have taken years for ex-security adviser John Bolton or chief of staff Mick Mulvaney to stand on the witness stand, because judges would have had to prescribe this in all instances beforehand.
McConnell and the Republicans want to prevent testimony because they fear that the president would look very bad. With good reason: In the past few days, the various interviews by Lev Parnas, the former assistant to Rudy Giuliani, have shown that Trump personally ordered the blackmailing of the Ukrainian government.
Read the indictment: Adam Schiff. Picture: EPA
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The GOP is trapped on the question of witnesses: two thirds of Americans – including a large number of Republicans – expressly want witnesses to be summoned, especially John Bolton. There are also some senators who will have to win tight elections in areas dominated by Democrats next November.
Some of these senators – notably Mitt Romney, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Gory Gardner – have indicated that they might vote with the Democrats on the witness question. It is therefore conceivable that McConnell grind his teeth.
What happens now? Under the direction of John Roberts, the chief federal judge who heads the trial, the 100 senators will first hear the indictment. It is read out by the seven representatives from the House of Representatives, who have been appointed by the democratic majority leader Nancy Pelosi. Managers also include Adam Schiff and Jerrold Nadler, the chairmen of the committees that conducted the hearings.
In trouble: Mitch McConnell, Republican majority leader in the Senate. Picture: EPA
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Then the President’s defense lawyers, led by Pat Cipollone, the White House lawyer, will make their counter-arguments. Trump has added telegenic stars to his defense team. These include Alan Dershowitz, an emeritus Harvard professor and a permanent guest at Fox News, and Ken Starr, who was a special investigator in Clinton impeachment at the time. Then there will probably be a showdown on the witness question.
Although the outcome of the trial is most likely already certain – Trump is acquitted – there is tension. Should McConnell fail with his witness blockade and John Bolton, but possibly also Lev Parnas and others, testify, then suddenly everything would be open again and the outcome uncertain. Even impeachment of Trump would then no longer be unthinkable.
