Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a bullish mood as obstacles line up to shape the price trajectory.
Cointelegraph presents five factors that determine where BTC / USD can go in the next few days, and what traders should watch for.
All eyes on the Fed and US inflation.
Stocks hit records last week with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. Despite a lesser overall impact on Bitcoin, movements in macro-markets are still more than capable of overwhelming cryptocurrency.
Bullish momentum continued on Monday, with stock futures higher, but with a sense of dread that built on the next speech from the US Federal Reserve.
Markets were waiting for news on inflation, which according to rumors, could reach 4%.
This would be a perfect storm to lift up the safe havensAccording to analysts, in an environment that has already sent the US dollar index to its two-year minimums and flooded the market with excess liquidity from quantitative easing.
The news will come from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during his Annual Economic Policy Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Thursday.
“No doubt more clarity will be sought through this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium.”Ben Emons of the macro-analytics firm Medley Global Advisors told Bloomberg Monday.
US futures were higher; For its part, Asia set a bullish tone thanks to Washington’s assurances not to block the Chinese social network WeChat, and owner Tencent’s shares rose more than 4% as a result.
Analyst targets $ 9,600 to buy in case of a dip
In short terms, Bitcoin pleased analysts at the beginning of the week. For the Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michaël van de Poppe, a move lower was now less likely after BTC / USD avoided a repeat of the levels below $ 11,500 on Sunday night.
In a video from Sunday’s transaction analysis, van de Poppe added that, in the event of a dip, the “buy” level to watch out for, however, would be below $ 10,000.
“The actual level I’m looking for buy levels in the event of a dip is between $ 9,600 and $ 9,900.”, summarized.
Short-term analysis of BTC / USD. Source: Michaël van de Poppe / Twitter
Concern about a drop below five figures had become less common among commentators; Van de Poppe for the most part dismissed rumors of a pullback below $ 8,000.
The last time Bitcoin traded below $ 10,000 was in late July.
Bitcoin difficulty hits a new record
Difficulty adjusted by rising 3% to hit new all-time highs, but the trend of the hash rate was lower.
According to the data of the monitoring resource BTC.com, difficulty increased 3.6% on Monday to reach 18.17 billion.
The new record suggests that the participation of miners in the network is stronger than ever, and the competition is reflected in how burdensome it is to solve the equations on the blockchain.
Difficulty adjusts automatically and is an essential feature of Bitcoin as self-regulating hard money. The issue remains fixed regardless of the high or low difficulty.
In the meantime, the hash rate decreased about 8% in the last seven daysEstimates show that it currently hovers around 119 exahashes per second (EH / s).
Six-month average Bitcoin hash rate graph. Source: Blockchain
Given the imprecise nature of hash rate measurements, the number is likely to normalize after the difficulty adjustment, continuing a broad uptrend insteadas just after the May halving, miners’ income was reduced by 50% overnight.
$ 730 million options expire
Attention could turn once again to crypto derivatives this week, as the month comes to an end and the sales are approaching.
62,000 BTC ($ 730 million) of Bitcoin options will expire on August 28, which recalls the action at the end of June.
Open interest expiration dates for Bitcoin options. Source: Skew
Traditionally, liquidation junctures put downward pressure on the price of BTC, but how reported Cointelegraph, the expiration of nearly $ 1 billion in June turned out not to be a market event.
However, with each passing week, futures reach a wider audience, as evidenced by record influx Grayscale in August.
At the same time, the chain analysis resource Skew reported record short positions for CME Group’s Bitcoin futures, which it described as “very likely” due to the profitability of so-called “cash & carry” trades.
These are done between the futures price and the spot price of Bitcoin as a form of arbitrage.
Queen “extreme greed”
Bitcoin investor sentiment is “extremely greedy” and he gets more and more greedy.
That was the conclusion of the sentiment indicator of Fear and Greed Index, which on Monday remained firmly bearish in the general mood of the market.
Como Cointelegraph reported last week, the index nearly hit the “greed” record before a slight pullback, however it rallied to its 100/100 high over the weekend.
The index uses a basket of factors to measure whether the market is oversold or whether it is due to a correction.
Fear and Greed Index as of August 24. Source: Alternative.me
In terms of volatility, the use of Bollinger bands in BTC / USD also indicates that a new price action is taking place, but it remains uncertain whether it will be up or down.
Last week, creator John Bollinger himself described Bitcoin’s current rally as a “picture perfect”.
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