09:12 PM
Thursday 28 May 2020
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Books – Muhammad Nassar:
On May 21, Dr. Khaled Abdel Ghaffar, Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research, announced that the analyzes that are being performed indicate that Egypt recorded 20 thousand injuries on May 27 and 28.
Today, the Ministry of Health and Population announced the registration of 1127 new cases that proved positive for its laboratory analyzes of the virus, and that the total number of “new corona” infections increased to 20793 cases, in line with the government expectations for the rates of virus spread. Will the wave of Corona’s injuries escalate at the same time that the government expected?
Prediction model
Dr. Khaled Abdel-Ghaffar said, they work according to the model of immediate and future prediction, the immediate is that the number of cases that occur daily to infinity, and infection can reach everyone, and the future, depends on the prediction of two or 3 weeks.
He emphasized that the analysis of these matters has a large income in health care and the ability of the health system to absorb the cases.
Refraction
In his statements, the Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research unveiled a scenario that anticipates the breaking of infections of the “Corona emerging .. Covid-19” virus, as it is possible to continue increasing the infections to 37 thousand cases, after which the pandemic will be broken.
Zero injury
He continued: Can we reach the number 37 thousand or 40 provided that the inflection point is on the 28th or 29th of May so that 37,000 cases can be registered, and you can prefer decreasing until the 16th of July to reach the zero injury.
Another model
The Minister stressed: All that we try to see when we will reach the maximum number of infections, and there is another model called the Logistic Progress Index, we put another number on which we measure it, and it depends on determining the point of refraction in the virus through the number zero, all that the number from 0 to 100 remains injuries Increasing, even if less than 0 remains, I’m going to recover.
Virtual model
Dr. Khaled Abdel Ghaffar said that there is a hypothetical scenario for the infection rates of Corona virus in Egypt.
He added during his speech on May 21: We are not 14 thousand cases, we are 71 thousand cases, and we expect at the end of the month we will reach 100 thousand whose parents we do not see; Because it is impossible for any country to reach all infected cases
5 times the actual number
The minister emphasized that this hypothetical model depends on the actual number of injuries being 5 times the number observed, which is announced in the daily health statement.
According to this scenario, the number of actual injuries in Egypt to date amounts to 103,965 cases and not 20793 cases as currently monitored.
The government had previously expected to exceed 100,000 injuries according to this scenario by the end of this month.
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