Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yun Young-gwan
– On the morning of the 4th, the Korean-US leader made a call. The media reported that the two leaders agreed that there is a need to “create a comprehensive strategy toward North Korea together” in a short period of time, and that “promise to upgrade the ROK-US alliance to the next level”. They said they shared the recognition that “improving Korea-Japan relations is important”.
Biden diplomatic team persuasion prior to North Korea
More certainty than strategic ambiguity
To strengthen the position of diplomatic relations with the United States and China
There is a definite need to improve relations between Japan and Korea.
– In fact, all three challenges of Korean diplomacy have been discussed. The problem is that North Korea, China and Japan are each at stake in these three issues. In order for the ROK government to carry out the agreements between the two leaders, the diplomatic direction must be changed to some extent in relations not only with the United States but also with these three countries. Since the power of inertia is always strong and there are risks associated with policy readjustment, the Korean government needs considerable determination. Let’s look at them one by one.
The first is the issue of implementing “to create a comprehensive strategy toward North Korea together”. From the perspective of the Korean government, the memories of 2018 will be strong. The heightened tension in 2017 was turned into a negotiating phase through the PyeongChang Olympics, and there were three inter-Korean summits and three meetings between the leaders of North America. Perhaps you want to create a second PyeongChang event during the Tokyo Olympics this summer. But it is something to think deeply about.
Biden’s team’s view of North Korea is far colder than we might imagine. They think the Trump-Kim Jong-un meeting was a TV show, and Kim Jong-un tried to play with Trump. And honestly, Chairman Kim Jong-un’s interest is all in the US, but it doesn’t seem to be in Korea. Despite the unfortunate appeal of the Korean government, there are no signs of change in attitude toward South Korea for the time being.
If so, it would be better to concentrate on the United States rather than put high expectations on North Korea. How can we help the Biden administration raise the North Korean issue among the numerous urgent agendas to accelerate the resumption of negotiations? How will we not only insist on a bottom-up approach that values the negotiating team, but how will we communicate with the leaders when necessary? Considering these issues and seeking ways to persuade the United States will have a greater practical effect from the perspective of building peace on the Korean Peninsula.
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Sunday Column 2/6
– The second is the promise to “upgrade the ROK-US alliance to the next level.” China is at stake here. China is a country that has focused on weakening the ROK-US alliance over the past 20 years for a dominant position in Asia. It is a masterpiece in bringing their will to neighboring countries through psychological tactics and economic sanctions. Our government may try to respond with an appropriate’strategic ambiguity’ between the US and China. However, things have changed drastically. It is a situation that requires the principles and directions of diplomacy at an appropriate level, not’ambiguity’.
President Trump was obsessed with money rather than alliance values. They didn’t pay much attention to areas other than their own interests, such as the issue of share of defense expenses, and even looked at the worsening of Korea-Japan relations. So, in Korea, there were relatively many options and a wide range of actions. It was easy to use’strategic ambiguity’.
But President Biden is very different. He tries to make full use of the traditional mid-realist diplomacy that emphasizes democracy, alliance and multilateralism. In his eyes, Korea is the most successful case of the US alliance. I met him two or three times in Washington as a foreign minister in 2003, who was the chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, and I could read that thought. As the expectations for Korea are high, there will be many requests. So we need a strategy of what we can listen to and what is difficult, and what the United States will ask us to cooperate with.
In that case, at the level of value alliance and global cooperative alliance, it will be necessary to actively help and’upgrade’ the alliance. That’s why we need to instill in America the perception of going together. However, it must be stated clearly not to extend the military target of the ROK-US alliance to China on the Korean Peninsula. In addition, we need to persuade them to actively help with the issue of building peace on the Korean peninsula, not as if they were others. Even in China, in terms of national identity, which stipulated democracy in the constitution, we must quietly but clearly clarify that we have no choice but to form an alliance with the United States to cooperate in resolving global issues and value alliances. If there is a possibility of backlash from China and it is inevitable to pay a certain amount of money, it is bound to appeal to public opinion and respond in unity. In the long run, that’s a better strategy.
Finally, it is a Japanese problem. If Korea-Japan relations are dealt with emotionally with the awareness of domestic voters, they will inevitably pay large diplomatic costs. Of course, Prime Minister Abe’s view of revisionist history was a big problem, and there was a structural cause of the conflict between Korea and Japan due to the difference in geopolitical position between Korea and Japan. And there are aspects to respect the judgment of the judiciary. However, it is necessary to make practical efforts to approach issues of past history and economic and security separately. Above all, we need to review and actually put into practice the political solutions proposed here and there in the meantime to bypass and block the impact of judicial decisions. Improving Korea-Japan relations will strengthen our diplomatic position not only with China but also with the United States.
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yun Young-gwan
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