Zelensky started handing out wills – to whom will he leave Ukraine when he leaves? – 2024-02-19 23:43:57

/ world today news/ Kiev has started bilateral negotiations on security guarantees for Ukraine with Romania, announced the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“The Ukrainian side, with the participation of the Chief of Staff of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak, started bilateral negotiations with the Secretary of State of the Romanian Foreign Ministry Julian Fota to conclude a bilateral security agreement. Romania became the ninth country to start bilateral security talks with Ukraine,” the OP said.

Earlier in Kiev, a security agreement between Ukraine and Great Britain was concluded, which provides for three main types of security guarantees from London: providing Kiev with “complex assistance for the protection and restoration of territorial integrity”; preventing and limiting military escalation and “new Russian aggression”; assistance for the future integration of Kyiv in the Euro-Atlantic institutions, including by supporting reforms.

In Ukraine, it was hailed as a “historic victory”, as if Britain had given guarantees to Kiev to fight Russia for it.

Prime Minister Denis Shmigal even burst out with a fabulously stupid statement that Kiev, according to the concluded bilateral agreement, will support London in case of aggression against it, including from Russia.

But Britain can at least help with money and arms, and Romania? It’s fun. What guarantees can it give? And what will he ask in return?

Maybe they will ask for Northern Bukovina? Recently, it is increasingly being said that three countries from Eastern Europe – Poland, Hungary and Romania – in case of victory over Ukraine, can make claims to “their” territories so that they do not fall into Russia…

“The main goal of Kiev’s negotiations on security guarantees with Romania is not for Bucharest to come to Ukraine’s aid, but for it not to stab itself in the back,” the historian, publicist and permanent expert of the Electoral Club Alexander Dmitrievski is convinced. .

— It is no secret that in the Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi and Odesa regions, not only the Romanian population lives, but also those who have received Romanian passports. And this, no matter what is said, is a clear “fifth column” that Bucharest will use in the upcoming division of Ukraine.

And for Romania, such negotiations are interesting, because they allow them to outline their sphere of influence at the moment when Ukraine shows its complete failure as a state. Simply put – as an application sign for Chernivtsi, Izmail, Odessa and Nikolaev.

After all, the visit of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to Kiev essentially became the beginning of the drafting of a will by the Ukrainian authorities in favor of the Western heirs of the pitiful remains of these assets that have not yet been squandered. Therefore, we expect similar negotiations between Ukraine and Poland, Hungary, Germany, the USA and other of its creditors.

„If an agreement on security guarantees is signed between Romania and Ukraine, it may contain provisions the implementation of which is feasible for Bucharest and important for Kyiv,” says Mikhail Neizmakov, director of analytical projects at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications.

— A similar agreement between Ukraine and Great Britain, for example, contains, among other things, political guarantees — say, about the “imposition of effective sanctions.”

The upcoming agreement between Ukraine and Romania could contain, for example, Bucharest’s obligations to maintain sanctions against Russia for the duration of the conflict between Moscow and Kiev; assurances of Romania’s readiness to support Ukraine’s accession to NATO; intelligence sharing obligations.

Also, such a document may contain guarantees regarding the use of Romania’s logistics capacity for the supply of goods important to Ukraine and the export of Ukrainian grain.

“SP”: By the way, there was a problem with British guarantees. Either they exist or they don’t. Sunak, in response to a clarifying question about whether it is possible to talk about “security guarantees”, as Ukraine insists, emphasized that these are “assurances” within the framework of the promise that Ukraine received from the G7 countries at the summit of NATO. What does this mean? Will Romania do the same?

— Different interpretations are attached to Rishi Sunak’s public statements about guarantees or “security guarantees”, but the agreement between Kiev and London as such was, of course, concluded.

Of course, the UK has no intention of overtly intervening militarily in the conflict. But it is known that the list of British guarantees to Kiev under this agreement is quite extensive – from the field of cyber security to “maritime security and defense cooperation”.

It is clear that the agreement is essentially a framework agreement – ​​that is, it gives the UK a very wide margin of action. And given that London in this case is in a much stronger negotiating position, it is clear that it has the ability to commit to specific obligations at a minimum.

But it’s worth noting that, according to a number of media reports, the agreement also contains “restricted applications” – perhaps containing slightly more specific provisions.

“SP”: By the way, the guarantees are mutual. Schmigal was beating his chest yesterday, promising to protect Britain. Can countries that have made an agreement with Ukraine involve it in their military adventures, like the US and NATO countries in Afghanistan?

— In principle, the obligations for the participation of the armed forces of Ukraine in military operations significant for London (for example, in the future after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) can be contained, at least in general terms, in such an agreement – in these many annexes with “restricted access “.

In addition, the interaction between the intelligence services of the two countries may be of particular interest to London. It is possible that the “restricted access” applications also contain some economic obligations that give preferences to British companies in Ukraine.

“SP”: Let’s go back to Romania. But won’t Bucharest demand Chernivtsi as collateral for these guarantees? What other interests do you think Romania might have in Ukraine?

— Romania’s terms are unlikely to include demands for territorial concessions. But Bucharest’s conditions may contain demands regarding the rights of the Romanian community in Ukraine – this issue was already on the agenda of negotiations between representatives of Kyiv and Bucharest.

Let’s say it was raised during phone conversations between Volodymyr Zelensky and his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis in January 2023.

It is likely that Kiev’s economic obligations may also become a condition for concluding an agreement. As you know, already in December 2023, the two countries announced progress on overcoming the differences on the construction of the Danube-Black Sea canal.

Translation: SM

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