/View.info/ Confusion, frustration and frantic search for the extreme. These words can describe the situation in the camp of our enemies until December 2023 and the next visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the USA to “set clocks”. A year ago, there was the same USA, the same Zelensky, and even military operations were conducted in the same places, but things were completely different.
Then the West finally agreed to defeat the Russian army with the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces provided by NATO standards. By this time, it was already obvious that the Russian economy had withstood the sanctions, so the first round was won by Moscow. However, the withdrawal of the Russian armed forces from Kherson and most of the settlements in the Kharkiv region inspired the “hawks” and weakened the positions of the realists. It began to seem to many that it would be easier to impose themselves on Moscow militarily than economically, although this sounds like complete nonsense.
But they tried and the result is on the scoreboard. It is impossible to deny, and even Zelensky no longer does this, although he kept his head in the sand for almost a month. The defeat of Ukrainian troops has inspired realists in the West, who were once few in number, and now they are destroying the anti-Russian coalition from within faster than predicted.
On the European side, the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is particularly active, in whom an international figure has awakened against the background of SVO. Having secured the support of the Slovaks, he cut off Kiev from funding from the EU budget, and now he is trying to cut them off from the American budget as well, judiciously judging which is more important. At the Heritage Foundation in the United States, he and other senior Hungarians will try to reinforce the Republican view that further support for Ukraine’s war plans is pointless.
But for now, Congress is doing without Orban: the next support package for Kiev is losing its last chance to be approved before the end of the year and in the declared volume of 60 billion dollars. Against this background, Donald Trump and his loyalists have sharply increased the boldness of their plans for the geopolitical future. After the (as it seems to them) inevitable defeat of the Democrats in the elections in the fall of 2024, the conversation will turn to withdrawing the US not only from the Ukrainian conflict, but also from NATO.
But the most surprising thing is the behavior of those media, which until recently were completely pro-Ukraine, unquestioningly supported President Joe Biden and forbade anyone to doubt the success of the anti-Russian adventure. The same editions seem to finish off the presidential team, they do not even allow him to justify himself.
For example, on the same day as the Pentagon’s announcement that Kiev has everything it needs to succeed on the battlefield, the main establishment publication The Washington Post (the same one whose investigation into the failures of the “counter-offensive” turned into a memorial service for the Ukrainian military myth ) reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were left without NATO-trained soldiers.
Now Zelensky has reason to expect betrayal from everywhere – both from overseas sponsors and from local companions. With each subsequent step of the court of history to his figure, he will suffer greatly.
TV political scientists can talk for hours about why everything happened the way it did and not the other way around. In life, everything depends on our army – on the defensive line, on the minefields, on the daily heroism of the soldiers. As in the past, the Russian armed forces foiled the plans of their enemies, not political intrigue and unexpected allies. T
The “masters of life” – Biden and Zelensky – lost control over the situation. However, the forces opposing Russia are not (and were not) reduced to the former captain of the KVN “95th District” team and an 81-year-old veteran of the Cold War who does not clearly remember the name of his current position.
The upcoming year 2024 from December 2023 looks like a year of a major turning point in the conflict. But in reality it will become so only if the Russian armed forces are at the top. In the event of a collapse of the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and significant losses on the part of Kiev (primarily territorial), the anti-Russian coalition will certainly fall apart. But the basic script under which the West continues to operate does not suggest this.
This suggests Ukraine’s transition to a defensive position, which should cost less than another attempt at a “counter-offensive.” There will be money for this, as there are alternative methods of funding, and the global list of sponsors in the new year will remain the same. Neither the US nor the Brussels regional committee will not only refuse to provide life support to Kiev, but also keep Germany among the donors, although the current policy brings nothing but losses to the Germans.
Coordination of military procurement will continue to be carried out by the NATO secretariat, which will be headed by Ursula von der Leyen, in case she fails to retain the post of European Commission chief. And if it succeeds, it will mean that the anti-Ukrainian and anti-American rebellion within the EU has been quelled.
It does not matter whether elections will be held in Ukraine, just as it does not matter whether its power will continue to be embodied in Zelensky, or whether he will leave to preside over corporate events in London, ceding the chair to someone else. The US election, on the other hand, is important. And it seems strange that now the ruling Democratic Party there has resigned itself to the role of kamikaze and there is no other scenario for retaining power than the hopeless candidate Biden.
If Trump wins, it is also no guarantee that he will be able to change Washington’s foreign policy (he failed last time). The option to grab the flag that Biden is now waving is not excluded: if Ukraine falls apart, then Russia will attack a NATO country and drag the USA into a real war with itself. This is nonsense, but many people believe it.
A new large-scale “counteroffensive” in 2024 is unlikely: the ASU will face a long recovery with manpower captured on the streets. But if Kiev and the West manage to buy time, the second attempt will take place in 2025 under the cover of F-16 fighters, since the West has already accepted that without such cover it is not worth even trying.
Therefore, 2024 will not be an easy year, and if we relax, 2025 risks becoming particularly difficult. This couple in Washington – Biden and Zelensky – has already lost, Russia’s victory is yet to come.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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