Twenty years have passed since South America won the World Cup. Since then, strikingly, every Brazilian campaign has ended as soon as it has come up against European opposition in the Round of 16. And although Argentina beat Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands in 2014, all of their recent World Cups have also ended the same way: eliminated by the Europeans.
A combination of the pandemic and the birth of the Nations League means there has been very little football between Europe and South America since Russia 2018. Brazil beat the Czech Republic, while the Argentina drew with Germany both in 2019. It’s hard, then, to gauge the respective balance of power in Qatar’s preparations — something that makes this World Cup particularly intriguing.
Brazil and Argentina are certainly full of arrogance at the moment. Often one of them struggles in South American qualifying and has to get out of a hole. Not this time. Confidence is high and morale could have been boosted by the draw.
Uruguay and Ecuador will make it a South American quartet in Qatar, and if Peru win a playoff game against Australia or the United Arab Emirates, they will be the continent’s fifth.
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BRAZIL
Group G opponents: Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon
What to expect: This is a group that may be tougher than it looks to many Brazilian eyes. Brazil met all three recently – the two Europeans were in their group in Russia, when they faced Cameroon four years earlier. One would certainly expect Cameroon to put up tougher opposition than in 2014. Even so, Brazil are clear favourites. Four years ago they beat Serbia but were held hostage by Switzerland, a side they won’t make the mistake of underestimating this time around.
Where should they end: Brazil didn’t concede a goal. With more top goalkeepers and centre-backs than they can use, Brazil don’t even look like they’ll concede a goal. And in recent months, some attacking options have flourished: wingers Vinicius Junior, Raphinha and Antoinecenter forward Matheus Cunhagame leader Lucas Paqueta. Suddenly it’s not about Neymar, taking some of the pressure off the Paris Saint-Germain star in a tournament vital to his legacy. Last time, Brazil peaked too early – they were better in the preparation than in the tournament. Now they look more experienced, a better side than the one that probably deserved to take Belgium into extra time in that epic 2018 quarter-final. a very good day to stop them.
ARGENTINE
Group C opponents: Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland
What to expect: Argentina have had tough draws in the past, but they may have few complaints about it. Lionel Scaloni’s side, unbeaten for almost three years, will be considered favorites for their three group matches. On paper, they seem to have gotten off to a straight start against Saudi Arabia. Mexico, currently managed by former Argentina boss Gerardo Martino, are a more frequent opponent – beaten in the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, and three times in friendlies since the last World Cup. And while Robert Lewandowski could pose some interesting questions to their defence, Argentina would seem to have too many for Poland.
Where should they end: Something will have to go wrong for Argentina not to drop out of this group. The spring in their stride is justified. The formation seems to be the best team, the exceptional collective unit, of Lionel Messi’s long career. The midfield passing circuit means that Messi now receives possession closer to the goal, rather than having to come back and start the moves. And the defense has tightened considerably, especially since the emergence of the goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez and central defender Christian Romero. It will be interesting to see how they hold up against top opponents, but anything less than the quarter-finals will be a disappointment, and they should be seen as one of the candidates to go all the way.
URUGUAY
Group H opponents: South Korea, Portugal, Ghana
What to expect: It’s a reunion of recent enemies. Uruguay beat then-reigning European champions Portugal four years ago, and in 2010 they beat South Korea and Ghana on their way to the semi-finals. This, however, gives no reason to be complacent. Group H may well be the best-balanced of the eight groups, with all four teams having realistic chances of advancing to the knockout stages.
Where should they end: Uruguay’s fate is difficult to predict for two reasons. First, the group is so well balanced. Things will probably be decided on slim margins. And secondly, Uruguay still have some work to do to sort out their squad. What to do with veterans? Captain and central defender Diego Godin now needs protection. Would they be better off without him? It seems that louis suarez and Edinson Cavani can’t play together up front anymore – at least not in every game – so how do you set up the team? Where will the attack rhythm come from? If they can get the answers right, then another quarter-final is a possibility. Otherwise, they might come home early.
ECUADOR
Group A opponents: Qatar, Senegal, Netherlands
What to expect: No one in Ecuador imagined the team would travel to Qatar when the qualification process began, and here they are kicking off the competition against the hosts, who beat them 4-3 in a friendly in 2018. This game will have strong emotional content. . Nobody really knows how Qatar will react to this kind of scene, and it’s much the same for Ecuador, a young and inexperienced team under this kind of spotlight. Opener looks like vital play. Three points would give them the confidence and momentum to take on two tough opponents. A first-day defeat would be a disaster.
Where should they end: In 2006, Ecuador came out of their group and fell narrowly to England in the second round. It’s hard to imagine them going any further this year; there are problems in a number of positions, such as goalkeeper. But they are fast and strong, with a very interesting generation of emerging talent. Everything that happens in Qatar will serve as useful experience on the road to 2026, when they should be a threat.
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