Research report text
【Armor: Short-term high callback, thread is still bullish in the medium-term]
The 2305 thread futures contract fell from a high level on Monday, and the trend was volatile. The still favorable macroeconomic policies strengthened market sentiment. After the continued increase in futures prices, sentiment began to stabilize. In the spot market, the price of billet in Tangshan is 3740, an increase of 20 from the previous month, and the price of domestic thread is 4053, an increase of 55 from the previous month.
At the macro level, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2023. The meeting stressed that next year we will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and give full play to the pivotal role of consumption and the pivotal role of investment. The joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council has optimized and implemented the new ten new measures for epidemic prevention and control.
In terms of industry, the weekly production of yarn increased and the apparent demand decreased. The production of yarn was 2.88 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons; in terms of demand, the demand for board is was 2.77 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons. The national social building materials inventory increased, the factory warehouse was flat, the wire factory warehouse was 1.82 million tons, a decrease of 00,000 tons, the social warehouse was 3.66 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons, and total inventory was 5.48 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons.
Overall, the domestic real estate policy continues to be positive, and the epidemic policy is being rapidly optimized. The main factors constraining the building materials market, the epidemic and the real estate policy, have changed. The middle line remains bullish.
Operation Tip:Go long on dives
【iron ore: Iron ore has entered the adjustment phase and the market needs to digest the previous increase]
The DCE iron ore futures index contract closed at 809 on Monday, down 11.5 points. Mysteel announced CFR price of imported PB powder is 110, down 2.2 from the previous trading day; the price of PB powder at Qingdao port is 820; 66% fine dust in Tangshan, Hebei is 1020, up 20; The settlement price of Ann is 3740, the settlement price of Lulong in Qinhuangdao is 3740, and the transaction price of operators including taxes is 3810.
The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 13384.62, an increase of 106.81 from the previous month, the average daily port volume was 303.25, an increase by 3.68. From December 5 to December 11, total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.102 million tons, an increase of 1.254 million tons from the previous month; The total volume of arrivals from China’s 45 ports was 24.084 million mt, an increase of 898,000 mt from the previous month; The total volume of arrivals from the six northern ports was 11.299 million mt, a decrease of 1.748 million mt from the previous month.
The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 75.89%, an increase of 0.29% from last week and a 7.75% increase from last year; a decline of 1.30%, a year-over-year decline of 57.14%; the average daily production of molten iron was 2.2116 million tons, a monthly decrease of 16,500 tons and an annual increase of 224,600 tons.
The total stock of iron ore imported by steel mills across the country is 91.8169 million tons, an increase of 335,600 tons from the previous month; the daily consumption of imported ore in the current sample steel mills is 2.7437 million tons, a decrease of 23,600 tons from the previous month, and the inventory consumption ratio is 33.46, an increase of 0.41 days from to the previous month. Last week, the total output of iron ore fine powder from 30 external dressing plants across the country was 676,100 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 5.96% week on week.
Currently, the production of smelted iron has decreased slightly and the steel mills have a slow supply demand. However, after the sharp increase in the previous period and the current low profitability of the steel mills, the steel mills have to digest the previous increase in ore prices. At present, iron ore has entered the adjustment stage, more orders can profit, and a small amount can be tested short.
Operation Tip:The market trend is adjusted, long orders are taken and a small amount can be tested for short positions.
Sina statement: This news is reproduced by Sina cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which is not to agree with his views or confirm his description. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP
