BAKU, KOMPAS.com – Sunday (8/11/2020) Azerbaijan managed to seize Shusha, the important city in Nagorno-Karabakh, and two days later Baku said Armenia give up.
Turkey as an ally of Azerbaijan also claims to have won significant gains after the agreement of a total ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Tuesday (10/11/2020) effective early in the morning.
The total ceasefire brokered by Russia put the war in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region which has been going on for 6 weeks to a temporary conclusion.
Also read: Azerbaijani-Armenian War Timeline: Early Beginnings, Violations, and Ceasefire
Reporting from Asia Times on Monday (26/10/2020), Azerbaijan’s victory momentum was obtained hours after the US-brokered ceasefire failed.
At that time Azerbaijan had several options. They were already advancing into open fields along the Iranian border, and could quickly approach the strategic Lachin corridor.
The problem is that the Azerbaijan forces are getting overwhelmed and the Karabakh soldiers have retreated to the forested plateau.
The choice at that time was to follow military logic or choose diplomacy with huge political advantages.
In military logic, Azerbaijan could focus on attacking the Lachin corridor, the crucial route between Karabakh and Armenia. Successfully occupying Lachin would cut off supplies and the flow of reinforcements to Karabakh, leaving Karabakh’s Armenians locked up for months.
Also read: Russia Deploys Peacekeeping Force in Nagorno-Karabakh to End the Armenian-Azebaijan War
But for Azerbaijan that wants to take full control of Karabakh, it will not be enough because it is less profitable in terms of politics and does not fulfill the expectations of achieving a total victory.
Then the second option is to veer off the Lachin Corridor to attack the city of Shusha (or Shushi) within Karabakh itself.
However, that strategy carries a big risk. The Azerbaijan military could be caught in a more intense guerrilla war, because the Karabakh troops have the advantage of mobility and shock power.
Also read: Armenia-Azerbaijan Total Armistice, Baku Citizens go wild
Winter is coming
As some Western military observers note Asia TimesRaw, the “tooth to tail” attack has no logistical endurance. The Azerbaijani invading forces were also spread too thin.
This condition will backfire if it continues, because any counterattack by the Armenian Karabakh soldiers will only get little resistance from the exposed Azerbaijan military.
Another hindering factor for Azerbaijan is the approaching winter, which could cut visibility as the mountainous terrain is snow-capped and impassable.
But with President Ilham Aliyev’s ambition to grab a total victory, Azerbaijan took the risk. They moved towards Shusha and the battlefield shifted to the hilltop city, which is one of the key cities in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Also read: Agreeing to a total ceasefire, Azerbaijan-Armenia officially reconciles?
Shusha is on the main road linking Nagorno-Karabakh with the Armenian territory. The city supports the separatists who want Karabakh independence.
Even though the war was fierce, Azerbaijan’s maneuvers were fruitful. Ilham Aliyev on Sunday (8/10/2020) stated that his troops managed to seize Shusha from Armenian separatists.
“With great pride and happiness, I inform you that the city of Shusha has been liberated,” Aliyev said in a quoted televised address. Kompas.com from AFP.
Aliyev also stated that November 8 will be remembered by the people of Azerbaijan as the day on which they return Shusha.
Also read: Azerbaijan Claims Capture of Shusha, Important City in Nagorno-Karabakh
Footage released by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense shows their soldiers firing artillery into the territory of the Armenian troops in Nagorny Karabakh.-Ceasefire
Two days after Shusha left Armenian hands, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced he had signed a ceasefire with Azerbaijan and Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“I have signed an agreement with the President of Azerbaijan and the President of Russia,” Pashinyan said in a release on Facebook.
“This step taken is not only painful for me, but also for the whole people,” continued the PM, who is also a journalist.
Quoted AFP on Monday (9/11/2020), the Armenian PM since May 2018 explained that the agreement would be implemented starting at 01.00 local time on Tuesday (10/11/2020).
Also read: Azerbaijan Shoots Down Russian Helicopter Over Armenian Border
The statement made by Pashinyan also officially ended the two-state war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which had erupted since 27 September.
“I decided this after thoroughly analyzing the situation facing the military,” said Pashinyan in response to the latest developments in Karabakh.
He was referring to an ethnic Armenian separatist group who announced they had lost Shusha, which is an important city in Karabakh.
Separatists claim that they are in danger of losing Stepanakert, which is the capital of the region in the Caucasus.
Therefore, Pashinyan explained that this truce, even though it was painful, was the best solution for his people.
Also read: Armenian PM Announces Painful Ceasefire with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh
– .
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Footage released by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense shows their soldiers firing artillery into the territory of the Armenian troops in Nagorny Karabakh.-Ceasefire
Two days after Shusha left Armenian hands, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced he had signed a ceasefire with Azerbaijan and Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“I have signed an agreement with the President of Azerbaijan and the President of Russia,” Pashinyan said in a release on Facebook.
“This step taken is not only painful for me, but also for the whole people,” continued the PM, who is also a journalist.
Quoted AFP on Monday (9/11/2020), the Armenian PM since May 2018 explained that the agreement would be implemented starting at 01.00 local time on Tuesday (10/11/2020).
Also read: Azerbaijan Shoots Down Russian Helicopter Over Armenian Border
The statement made by Pashinyan also officially ended the two-state war in Nagorno-Karabakh, which had erupted since 27 September.
“I decided this after thoroughly analyzing the situation facing the military,” said Pashinyan in response to the latest developments in Karabakh.
He was referring to an ethnic Armenian separatist group who announced they had lost Shusha, which is an important city in Karabakh.
Separatists claim that they are in danger of losing Stepanakert, which is the capital of the region in the Caucasus.
Therefore, Pashinyan explained that this truce, even though it was painful, was the best solution for his people.
Also read: Armenian PM Announces Painful Ceasefire with Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh
– .
