Will the Texans’ track record make aspiring coaches wary of Houston?

On paper, the Texans have one of the most attractive head coaching jobs in the NFL.

They have two first-round picks among the top 12 of the upcoming draft: No. 2 (original pick) and 12th overall (Browns pick acquired in trade for Deshaun Watson). They should have 11 caps in total. And they currently have a $46.8 million cap for 2023, eighth in the league, according to Over The Cap.

Houston has the draft credentials and financial flexibility to rapidly improve a roster that already has promising youngsters like running back Dameon Pierce, safety Jalen Pitre and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.

But Lovie Smith’s dismissal on Sunday, hours after the season finale, reminds us why aspiring coaches might view the opening with skepticism.

Smith is the Texans’ second straight head coach, joining David Culley, who was fired this past January after going 4-12 in the 2021 season. Neither had what most NFL observers would call winnable rosters (Culley probably surpassed achievements given his situation), and given that both are black coaches in a league that has a poor history of hiring and retaining those that look like them, the optics aren’t good for Houston.

It’s fair to speculate why a potential recruit would believe they will have the time to build a winning culture. Houston will get its fourth head coach in four years in 2023 (technically the fifth, if you count Romeo Crennel’s interim move in 2020 following the firing of Bill O’Brien). The Texans will have promising young talent to work with in 2023, but it could be a season or two before that translates into wins. Will the next manager be able to go all the way?

Here’s a question candidates will inevitably ask general manager Nick Caserio and president/CEO Cal McNair: How will the organization define progress with a new head coach next season? Why with the previous two coaches was not clear. Culley did not have a first- or second-round rookie pick on the roster of him. Smith probably had the worst roster in the NFL. Will the next Texan manager have the wherewithal to have a bad season?

There are several examples of NFL coaches who have turned loss early in their tenure into success. The Bengals’ Zac Taylor won six games combined in his first two seasons, then went to the Super Bowl last season. The 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan won 10 games combined in his first two seasons, then — like Taylor — went to the Super Bowl in his third season. Bill Belichick and Andy Reid won just five games in their first seasons with the Patriots and Chiefs, respectively. Both have won the Super Bowl (in Belichick’s case, multiple titles).

Organizational patience, which the Texans have not afforded their last two coaches, has led to success with other franchises.

Of course, the counter-argument is that the need for time doesn’t always outweigh the reality of really poor results. The Broncos’ firing of first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett after 15 games this season, for example, seemed justified given the caliber of Denver’s roster.

And eventually, the Texan head coaching job will be coveted, not just because of draft resources and rooftop space, but also because NFL head coaching gigs are so rare. There are only 32 of them, of which only a few are open each year. There are an infinite number of coaches who would line up just for the opportunity to interview one, let alone take the opportunity to topple a losing franchise. Safety is fleeting in NFL training, but that won’t stop candidates from scouting the Texans.

Less than 24 hours after Smith’s firing, Houston reportedly requested interviews with at least five candidates: Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, 49ers DeMeco Ryans and Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.

If the Texans’ choice has other head coaching options, what’s the point of going with Houston given his resume?

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Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean / USA TODAY Network, where he wrote Titans Beats for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) before moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyardur.