After unprecedented rates of up to 14%, we see inflation slowing down. This is because the large effect of energy prices is declining. But inflation will remain high this year, economists predict. Because higher wages and still expensive energy will affect, for example, food prices.
Energieprijzen zorgden in de afgelopen maanden voor ontzettend hoge inflatiepercentages, met dubbele cijfers vanaf juli tot wel 14 procent in september en oktober. In november zakte de inflatie al naar 9,9 procent. Ook in andere landen, zoals Duitsland, Frankrijk en Spanje, daalt de torenhoge inflatie.
Het opdrijvende effect van de hoge energieprijzen is om twee redenen nu minder groot, legt ABN AMRO-econoom Jan-Paul van de Kerke uit. “Zo is de inflatie een stijging van consumentenprijzen ten opzichte van een jaar eerder. En de prijzen van energie liepen ook eind 2021 al op. Daardoor wordt het verschil met een jaar geleden wat kleiner als het om energiekosten gaat.”
Tegelijk zakken de energieprijzen in de afgelopen twee maanden weer, herkent ook CBS-econoom Peter Hein van Mulligen. “Gas was in december weer ongeveer even duur als aan het begin van 2022, dus voor de oorlog in Oekraïne. Maar het moet gezegd: energie is nog steeds duur.”
“Ook als in 2023 de energieplafonds de kosten wat dragelijker maken. We keren dus ook zeker niet terug naar af. Prijzen van energie zijn nog vele malen hoger dan het oude niveau, begin 2021.”
Inflation will also remain high in 2023
Although inflation is easing slightly, both economists still expect high rates in 2023. ABN is aiming for an average of 3.7% in 2023. “We get more causes contributing to higher prices than higher energy tariffs” , says Van de Kerke. “Like higher wages that are passed on to consumer prices.”
Collective agreement wages increased on average in 2022 3.2 percent, the highest percentage in fourteen years. And in many industries, wage growth is much higher than the average. “Those higher wages need to be passed on by companies and gradually lead to higher consumer prices,” says the ABN AMRO economist.
Only now are energy costs reflected in prices
There is also the large indirect effect of higher energy costs. “This is a lagged effect, with energy prices from six months ago now flowing into other supermarket and bakery food prices,” says Van Mulligen. “Government energy ceilings have little influence on this.”
He points out that food prices also increased by 16% in November and that, for example, the increase in grain prices due to the war in Ukraine also affects food prices.
The indirect effects of rising energy costs will continue until 2023, predicts Van de Kerke. “For the time being, the desired 2% inflation is still far from being seen.” Van Mulligen expects the price caps to have a dampening effect on energy bills in January. But they are not yet included in the December figures.
Interest rate hikes do not depress inflation easily
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is trying to curb inflation in Europe with rate hikes. In 2022, the ECB’s interest rate has already been raised four times, which is reflected in savings and mortgage rates.
“This has only a limited effect on our inflation,” says Van Mulligen. “The ECB doesn’t do much about energy costs, which cause high inflation across Europe. Rate hikes can help, as they make investment less attractive, but they don’t address the root cause.”
