The day the new House of Representatives takes office should be a holiday. New and longtime lawmakers bring their friends and family, children run around the corridors of the Capitol. There are delicacies from various US constituencies. Old traditions, but now it’s different than usual.
The president is also to be elected on Tuesday. It has been a no-brainer for a hundred years: in one round, a candidate selected well in advance wins. Republican Kevin McCarthy (57) should have been such a candidate. But whether he can actually pick up the gavel is highly questionable.
Republicans have been fighting each other since the November election. They have obtained a majority in the House of Representatives and are therefore entitled to introduce the “speaker”. McCarthy needs sufficient votes: 218 to be exact. And this is a problem.
Republicans have only 222 seats in the House: if there are five dissenters, they won’t make it. So McCarthy’s enemies have a lot of power in this vote – and he has a lot of enemies.
Not conservative enough
A group of about nine ultra-conservative Trump loyalists have been throwing hurdles until the last few hours. “I’m not voting for Kevin McCarthy,” Virginia’s Bob Good said on Monday Fox News. “Hundreds of my constituents have told me not to.”
Members of this so-called Freedom Caucus, a far-right Republican group, don’t think McCarthy is conservative enough. Radical right-wing politicians like Colorado’s Lauren Boebert and Florida’s Matt Gaetz are only willing to back McCarthy dearly. They are pressuring McCarthy to change the rules in the House so the speaker can be impeached more easily. Now only a member of Congress in a leadership position can introduce a vote of no confidence, they are demanding that ordinary members of Congress be able to do the same.
Difficult parquet
Kevin McCarthy is in a tough spot. If he accepts the ultraconservatives’ biggest demand, his presidency will hang in the balance for the next two years. The radical part of his party will threaten to depose him at any time. The Republican Party is thus completely held hostage by what moderates, often behind closed doors, call the ‘lunatics’.
McCarthy spent all Christmas calling and pleading. He has added more and more water to the wine and is now willing to expand the president’s impeachment rules to five members of Congress, a sizable concession. “If you leave now you won’t get a better offer,” he warned the dissidents.
However, they still disagree. If this continues on Tuesday, McCarthy may not become president. What will happen then is uncertain.
With less support still majority
There is a possibility that another Republican will suddenly appear on stage. Someone who presents himself as a hero to restore peace after months of fighting. Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise (57) may be such a person. Scalise appeals to both the right and the moderates. While he has always said he has no such ambitions, he may still feel called upon.
There is another goat trail. McCarthy needs the support of at least half the vote: more yes than no. Delegates who do not vote are not counted. If a number of wayward Republicans abstain from voting instead of saying a firm “no,” McCarthy could still win a majority with less support.
McCarthy himself fears things will get worse: he warns of a democratic coup. “We must speak with one voice,” he told the right-wing TV channel news max. “If the games are played, the Democrats can walk away with the presidency.”
Democrats also have a chance
Democrats can also nominate someone as a candidate. This is not normally a possibility for the minority party. However, with enough dissent among Republicans, this is no longer unthinkable. Moderate Republicans who are fed up with the bickering in their party might opt for this. This scenario is the least likely, but most painful for Republicans.
Early Tuesday morning, the Republican Party will convene once again. This is McCarthy’s last chance. If his appeal fails, the first day of Congress will fall into chaos for the first time in a hundred years.
