This article is from the Special issue of Sciences et Avenir n ° 199 dated October-November 2019.
It is a point of consensus. Yes, AI will destroy existing jobs. “The most repetitive tasks will tomorrow be performed by machines “, says Lee Shenker, consultant at Business Analytics Institute, a senior management training company. The movement has already been underway for decades with, for example, robotization and the digitization of assembly lines. But AI is accelerating it and extending it to hitherto untouched sectors such as transport or commerce.
First jobs concerned: industry and agriculture
Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michaël Osborne estimated as early as 2013 that half of the jobs in the United States could disappear in twenty years. An alarmist estimate that some share in France: according to the Roland Berger cabinet, the unemployment rate could thus, in France, reach 25% in 2025! What specialists from the Ministry of Labor consider extremely pessimistic. An OECD study, published in March 2018, points out that 14% of jobs are easily automated and that 32% will be deeply affected by AI. First affected: industry and agriculture, the two sectors with the most unskilled employees, threatened by robotization. The introduction of AI in livestock farming, and weed control robots in agriculture, particularly with high added value such as viticulture, should significantly reduce labor requirements.
Seniors who will find it difficult to adapt
More generally, people with the least education and training would be the most affected. Still according to the OECD, seniors, having difficulty mastering artificial intelligence tools, could also have difficulty adapting to the new conditions for exercising their functions. But young people are not immune, because in many trades, they often start their careers by performing routine tasks that will disappear. In law firms, for example, it is customary for law school interns to carry out case law research – a task increasingly entrusted to specialized legal platforms. Faced with this announced wave of job destruction, how to limit the damage? By going through vocational training to adapt to change… or, quite simply, by moving towards a new profession.
–
–
