This weekend, for the second time this year, the conflict flared up between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan is claiming the recapture of several areas and Armenia has reported multiple deaths and mobilized the male population. Fears are growing about a new war in the area. Four Things You Should Know.
How did Nagorno-Karabakh actually originate?
Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Azerbaijan during the Soviet Union, but was already dominated by Christian Armenians at that time. Even before the fall of Soviet rule, the Armenian population of the region claimed independence.
After a major conflict between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, in which the former received help from Armenian troops and the latter from Turkey, a fragile ceasefire was established. Final standings: Azerbaijan retained control of the area, but the Nagorno-Karabakh government has in fact ruled autonomously ever since, with influence from Armenia.
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Nagorno-Karabakh still has many buildings broken down as a result of the war that raged in the area between 1988 and 1994. This is a street in the city of Şuşa in Nagorno-Karabakh (photo: ANP).
Why are Armenia and Azerbaijan arguing?
The Azerbaijanis consider the area to be Azerbaijani and it is a thorn in the side of the millions of inhabitants of the country that they have nothing to say in practice.
The conflict has flared up more often since the armistice, but this year it seems to be happening more often than in other years. So came in July at least twelve more people killed in skirmishes on the borderlands of the region. The reason for this may have been an Azerbaijani drone in the border area.
The last major escalation was in 2016, when a shooting incident at the border turned into a major four-day war. The Minsk group of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) brokered a solution at the time.
It is very difficult for both countries to make concessions, as both Azerbaijan and Armenia see the loss of the area as an attack on pride, honor and prestige. This makes a rapprochement or consultation between the two countries complicated to explain to the population.
Who else is involved?
In addition to Armenia and Azerbaijan, more countries play a (large) role in the background at Nagorno-Karabakh.
Oil-rich Azerbaijan mainly receives support from Turkey. Both countries maintain close ties, which is logical: Turkish is spoken in Azerbaijan and the population – like Turkey – is predominantly Muslim.
After the clashes in July and this weekend, the Turkish government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quick to express support for Azerbaijan. The country also pledged military support if necessary.
Armenia (which has always supported Nagorno-Karabakh) is completely dependent for security reasons on Russia, which provides military support and mediates in the conflict in the background. It also immediately complicates the quarrel, because Moscow also supplies weapons to Azerbaijan – although to a lesser extent than to Armenia.
Where will the conflict end?
Russia therefore benefits from a status quo and does not benefit from further escalation. After all, both countries are currently dependent on Moscow. No solution is to be expected from the Russian side for the time being.
It’s hard to say where the fight will end this time. All previous fires in the conflict eventually died down and the status quo was restored. Still, the escalation appears to be continuing this weekend than in 2016, which could complicate a de-escalation.
Azerbaijan claimed to have ‘reclaimed’ territory from Nagorno-Karabakh this weekend. The Armenian government says there have been deaths and destroyed Azerbaijani drones and tanks in retaliation. Shortly afterwards, Armenia declared martial law in the area and the entire male population was mobilized. With this the fear of a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh is growing.
The EU has now called for peace in the area and has asked both sides to resolve the conflict through negotiations. France and Russia, who are mediating with the US from the OSCE, have also called for an immediate ceasefire.
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