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What would happen if Plovdiv was shaken by a strong earthquake?

The earthquake in Turkey made us think about whether the buildings in Bulgaria are safe and whether they can withstand such an earthquake. The World Bank did an analysis titled “Earthquake Risk in Multifamily Residential Buildings.” It mainly affects the buildings built en masse in the cities of the USSR and the Eastern Bloc.

According to experts, 97% of the country’s territory is threatened by seismic impacts. The most dangerous seismic zones in Bulgaria are Krupnishka, Sofia, Shablenska, Gornooryakhovska and Marishka, in which Plovdiv also falls. But at the moment there is no danger of an earthquake similar to the one in Turkey.

In the analysis of the World Bank, the second largest city in Bulgaria – Plovdiv – is also affected. It looks at what would happen to the old buildings in an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7.5 on the Richter scale.

According to the analysis, two thirds of the population of Plovdiv (about 239,430 people) live in multi-family residential buildings since 2000.

Buildings with unreinforced masonry structures, reinforced concrete frames are at the greatest risk. These buildings do not meet modern requirements for seismicity and strength. In the event of a major earthquake, they will suffer the most damage.

In other words – 65,000 people, or 20% of the population of Plovdiv, live in the specified types of buildings, i.e. this population is at risk. These are homes from the old housing stock, built before 1970.

According to experts, the panels are the most resistant and strong, provided they are maintained.

According to Bulgarian standards, the operating period of the panels is about 50 years. Buildings must be surveyed to increase their shelf life. Renovation, such as is happening in our country, increases the energy efficiency of panel apartments, but has no direct connection with extending the life of the panel. The insulation protects healthy welds from the influence of climatic conditions, but only the healthy ones – it has nothing to do with the already corroded ones and those of poor quality.

Changing the plumbing is the other essential factor in extending the panel’s service life. Constant leaks lead to corrosion. It is especially dangerous when leaks and problematic sewers constantly wet foundations and cause soil subsidence. This is risky and really creates conditions for premature destruction not only of the panel construction.

Periodic roof repairs and exterior wall maintenance are mandatory. It is best to thermally and waterproof them in order to protect the structure in general and the welds in particular. Any removal of walls, columns and beams significantly weakens the reliability and reduces the stability and security of panel buildings.

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