What will be the consequences of the recognition of the Armenian genocide by the United States?

After some 30 countries including France, it was now the turn of the United States, Saturday, to recognize the Armenian genocide, the systematic massacre of 1.5 million people by the troops of the Ottoman Empire between 1915 and 1917 Democrat Joe Biden thus became the first American president to support what his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, again denounced Thursday as a “lie”. A decision without legal significance but more than symbolic, especially since this sad event is commemorated precisely every April 24, this date marking the start of the killings.

In an exchange on Friday by telephone with the Turkish head of state, the tenant of the White House had nevertheless expressed his desire to build a “constructive bilateral relationship” between the two countries, with “effective management of disagreements”. Suffice to say that this recognition, an ultra-sensitive subject in Turkey, should not ease existing tensions, while other delicate issues are pending, such as “American support for the PKK-PYD terrorist organizations [forces kurdes] in Syria “, in Erdogan’s words, or the overseas presence of the movement of Fethullah Gülen, his sworn enemy.

A “diplomatic defeat” for Ankara

This decision is however anything but a surprise: Joe Biden had promised during his campaign to take an initiative on this file. Despite years of pressure from the Armenian community in the United States, no American president has so far dared to anger Ankara, Washington’s historic ally and member of NATO. The US Congress had recognized the Armenian genocide in December 2019, during a symbolic vote. But Donald Trump has always refused to use the word.

“It is undoubtedly a diplomatic defeat for Ankara, analyzes Didier Billion, specialist on Turkey at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). But on both sides, no one has an interest in exacerbating the nature of the responses. Turks are worried about what will become of their relationship with the United States after the carte blanche given to them by Trump. Across the Atlantic, the new administration has understood that the country remains indispensable in the region. “

The two heads of state agreed to meet in June, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels. An interview that promises to be at least cold, if not polar.

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