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What we have seen from Mariupol, we can expect in several cities

The port city of Mariupol, located between the Crimean peninsula and the separatist-controlled areas of Luhansk and Donetsk, has been under Russian siege for almost two weeks.

The city is badly damaged and emergency aid is struggling to get there.

On Monday, you finally succeed in evacuate an unknown number of civiliansafter a number of such attempts have ended in disappointment recently.

According to Ukrainian authorities, the death toll in the port city has risen to at least 2,500. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has also stated that 400,000 people are trapped in the city.

A Ukrainian soldier on duty in the heavily devastated city of Mariupol, which Russian forces have besieged for almost two weeks, while thundering with artillery and rockets at civilian targets. Photo: Mstyslav Chernov / AP / NTB

Dramatic scenes

Geir Hågen Karlsen is a lieutenant colonel and head teacher of strategic communication at the Norwegian Defense College. He tells TV 2 that pictures from the city give a good impression of how terrible the situation is for both military personnel and civilians.

– What we have seen from Mariupol, with dramatic scenes, great destruction and many civilian casualties, we can probably expect in a large number of other cities in eastern Ukraine, also in the capital Kyiv.

IMPRESSION: Geir Hågen Karlsen says that photos from Mariupol give a good impression of how terrible the situation is for both military personnel and civilians.  Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2

IMPRESSION: Geir Hågen Karlsen says that photos from Mariupol give a good impression of how terrible the situation is for both military personnel and civilians. Photo: Truls Aagedal / TV 2

He points out that it could happen if Russia launches the major offensives that have been waiting for several days.

Will have consequences for civilians

Hågen Karlsen says that Russia’s operation in Ukraine has been much slower than they had planned.

– That plan was unrealistic and probably politicized from the top. But they have suffered heavy losses, many thousands of soldiers killed, and a large number of destroyed materiel.

A car on fire outside a totally damaged hospital in Mariupol on March 9.  Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP / NTB

A car on fire outside a totally damaged hospital in Mariupol on March 9. Photo: Evgeniy Maloletka / AP / NTB

He says that the Ukrainians are defending very well against Russia.

– In a number of places they have attacked. We have not seen the great movements on the maps and in the geography, but it is clear that the fighting around the cities is quite brutal.

Hågen Karlsen adds that the Russians have most likely run out of precision ammunition.

– So they will use less precise ammunition in the future. This will have further consequences for civilians.

Not over with the first

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. In less than three weeks, 2.8 million people have fled the country, according to the UN.

Mariana Vishegirskaya stands outside hospitals that were completely damaged after a Russian attack on March 9.  Photo: Mstyslav Chernov / AP / NTB

Mariana Vishegirskaya stands outside hospitals that were completely damaged after a Russian attack on March 9. Photo: Mstyslav Chernov / AP / NTB

More than 1.7 million of these have fled to Ukraine’s neighboring Poland, writes UNHCR in an update Monday.

Hågen Karlsen says that the war will take a long time, and that it may not be so surprising. He points out that urban war in particular has historically proved to be able to go on for a very long time.

– TIX is about to release an album called “Either it goes well, otherwise it goes over”. But unfortunately, it looks like this is neither going well nor over, at first.

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