NEW YORK – Ever-blue New York has twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans and has become less friendly to Republicans over the past decade, thanks in part to population loss in Upstate and the decline in New Yorkers they identify as Republicans . Joe Biden decisively won the 2020 presidential election in the state, with Democrats controlling the governorship and enjoying large majorities in both houses of the state legislature.
New York’s main race this November sees Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul running for the state to become the state’s first elected female governor against Republican Lee Zeldin of Long Island. Former Lieutenant Governor Hochul took office last year following the resignation of his predecessor, former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who resigned to avoid a probable impeachment trial. Hochul had a strong lead in the polls this year, although Zeldin hopes her anti-crime message will help narrow her gap and chase her away.
Hochul focused on emphasizing his support for abortion rights and taking action against climate change, and criticized Zeldin’s support for Trump and his objection to certifying the 2020 election results. Zeldin promised to appoint a state commissioner for anti-abortion health and criticized millions of dollars spent helping abortion providers amid an expected increase in out-of-state patients.
Republicans control eight of New York’s previous 27 congressional districts before the 2022 election, and New York will lose one of those seats. Democrats failed to get through new federal and legislative political maps that would cement strong liberal majorities across the state. A northern state judge ended up ordering new sets of maps drawn by an independent court master, whose maps gave the Democrats a lesser advantage.
About a third of the New York House races are considered competitive, with Republicans playing in the races on Long Island and Hudson Valley. In one of the most-watched contests, US Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, the five-term Democrat who was supposed to lead his party’s bid to hold on to Congress, is struggling to survive in a Hudson River Valley district. A hotly watched race in upstate New York is in the Syracuse area, where Republican Representative John Katko will leave after four terms. That contest pits Republican and United States Navy veteran Brandon Williams against Democrat Francis Conole, a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and current captain of the United States Naval Reserve.
Over the past decade, Democrats have amassed large majorities in the state House and Senate after years of Republican control of the state Senate. Democrats are struggling to keep their overwhelming majority in the swinging suburban districts, particularly on Long Island.
Here’s what you can expect on election night:
NIGHT OF ELECTIONS
The polls close at 9pm local time (9pm ET).
VOTE NEW YORK
New York has expanded absentee voting amidst the COVID-19 pandemic to allow voters to choose to vote by mail for fear of spreading the virus at the polls. A series of absentee votes in 2020 led to some long delays in the counting of votes. Lawmakers have passed legislation to allow counties to start counting absentee ballots before election day in hopes of avoiding such delays. Republicans are suing the courts to declare that law unconstitutional, and Democrats are fighting that lawsuit in court. The suspension of this law could delay the call for bids in the most competitive races.
New York voters defeated an election referendum in 2021 that would change the state’s constitution to allow absentee voting without apology. The state constitution requires absentee voters to be absent from their county of origin, ill or physically disabled.
More than 2.5 million of New York’s 13.4 million registered voters requested absentee votes in 2020, five times more than in 2016. Things happen quickly after the polls close. As the ballots have been arriving in the country secretaries’ offices for weeks, and are counted as they arrive, the results of much of the total vote are published within 90 minutes of voting closes. time.
About two-thirds of voters in populous New York City, which is home to an estimated 8.5 million residents, are Democrats. Meanwhile, Republicans make up 30% of registered voters outside of New York City and enjoy the benefit of voter registration in New York’s western and northern counties. Republicans are also competitive on Long Island: about 30% of Nassau County voters are Republicans compared to 40% of Democrats, while 31% of Suffolk County voters are Republicans compared to 34% of Democrats.
New York has not elected a statewide Republican elected official since the days of former Governor George Pataki, who served as governor from 1995 to 2006. For Zeldin to overtake Hochul, he will need to limit his loss margins in New York City and seek to win. compared to independent voters in the rest of the state. Independent voters outnumber Republicans in New York.
DECISION NOTES
AP will rank and declare winners in 189 contested elections in New York, including four statewide races and 26 US House races. In the 2020 general election, the PA first reported the results at 9:28 pm ET and 90 percent of the districts at 12:28 am ET on Wednesday, Nov.4. AP reported 100% of the results on Thursday, November 12, nine days after election day. However, the timing of the first reports could change in 2022, depending on the fate of a legal challenge to the new electoral rules that would allow the processing, counting and tabulation of ballot papers by correspondence before the close of the elections.
New York has a mandatory recount provision that intervenes if the margin of victory is 20 votes or less, is less than 0.5%, or, in a race where more than 1 million votes are cast, is less than 5,000 votes . The AP may call a statewide or US House run where the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less if we determine the lead is too large for a recount to change the outcome.
The PA will not indicate negative voting contests on election night if the margin between the top two candidates is less than 2% or if the best candidate is within 2% of the 50% ballot threshold. The AP will review those contests later this week to confirm that there aren’t enough votes left to count that could change the outcome.
WHAT ELSE SHOULD I KNOW?
Q: WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE THE 2020 PANDEMIC ELECTIONS?
R: A new law passed in 2021 allows the election commission to start counting ballot papers by correspondence before election day, although it cannot begin tabulating the results until one hour before polling closes on election day. Previously, absentee votes could not be counted until seven days after election night. Mail order ballots accounted for 21% of 2020 votes in New York.
However, in October 2022, a New York state court found the new rule unconstitutional. The state filed an urgent appeal and soon a decision. If the lower court decision is upheld, New York will revert to the 2020 rules, meaning absences cannot be tabulated until November 15.
New York lost a seat in the United States House of Representatives due to the reorganization of the congressional districts. The New York State House and Senate have also undergone reorganization. Population losses in the northern state and increases in the lower state can affect the balance of power in contests for congressional districts and the state senate. A further reorganization of state assemblies was mandated for 2024.
Q: HOW ARE PARTICIPATION AND EARLY VOTING?
R: As of February 21, 2022, there were 12,982,819 registered voters in New York, including 6.47 million registered Democrats and 2.85 million registered Republicans. In 2018, early voting represented only 249,000 (4%) of the 6.2 million votes cast. 2020 saw a seismic shift towards early voting, with early voting accounting for 4.4 million (50%) of the 8.69 million votes.
The request for voting for absenteeism must be submitted by 24 October. Ballot papers by correspondence must be returned in person by 8 November; those sent by post must be stamped by 8 November and received by 15 November.
Q: HOW LONG DOES IT USUALLY TAKE TO COUNT?
R: For general elections, the timing of the count will largely depend on the results of a legal recourse to the law that allows the counting of absentee ballots before the polls close. In past elections, absentees could not be counted until seven days after the election, causing significant delays in many election calls. The new law allows for the counting of votes before election day and tabulation one hour before the polls close. If the law is followed, we expect to receive the first report from New York City at 9:05 PM ET. We expect results from the rest of the state to start coming in about 20 minutes later. These early voting totals likely reflect early and post voting.
Q: WHAT ARE THE ERRORS OF EARLY RETURNS?
R: The challenge to the new electoral rules that allow the counting and tabulation of ballot papers by correspondence will have a huge impact on the expected results. If the new rule holds, expect early voting to be a report of early voting and by mail. Otherwise, postal voting will take place for seven days after election night. As with other recent contests, the use of mail order ballots has shown a partisan division, with Democrats much more likely to use mail order ballots than Republicans. This means that early results can be skewed to one side or the other depending on the types of grades reported.
Q: WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUESDAY?
R.: New York law provides for mandatory recounting if the margin of victory is less than 20 votes, less than 0.5% or, in a race where more than 1 million votes are cast, less than 5,000 votes. This would happen after the statutory audit of the state.
