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what the numbers say – Corriere.it

The numbers are growing. a fact: that in itself, however, tells little. The comparison is more useful: on November 11, 2020, exactly one year ago, in the middle of the second wave, laverage weekly incidence of new Covid cases per 100 thousand inhabitants in Milan it had hit 736. Yesterday it was 57. A massively lower number. The comparison, if limited only to that indicator, does not yet explain everything. Because in the Covid waves the decisive aspect lies in the trend of growth. In the meantime, the outbreak that emerged in the offices of the local police in Piazza Beccaria becomes a coincidence: At least 12 officers tested positive after party for a retired colleague. Tomorrow the day of the No green pass parade: close on arrival and four suspects on the eve for private violence (that’s who the searched activists are).

And then you have to check the progression last year. In 2020, the new cases of Covid in Lombardy begin to rise from the first week of October, when they are on average 351 per day. From that moment on, the devastating escalation: in the second week they pass to an average of 1,065 per day, then 2,566, then 5,132, in the first week of November they rise again to 7,666, new diagnoses in the second week of November arrive at an average of 8,639 per day. A dramatic press: Over a 6-week growth span of the epidemic, the average daily cases are over 24 times more at the end than at the beginning.


And what is happening today? The autumn wave started a little later: the third week of October, when cases rose from 281 to 340 as a daily average over the week, to then rise to 409, 483 and 809 new diagnoses per day on average in the last week. Therefore, in a month, a weight three times greater than at the start. The diagnosis is this: in the autumn of 2021 the epidemic has a negative trend, but (for the moment) slowly negative. in this context that, with the daily incidence of new cases over 50, Lombardy busted the first parameter that could bring it back to the yellow zone.

Will it happen? At the moment it is impossible to say. But probably on this aspect The Lombard commissioner for the vaccination campaign, Guido Bertolaso, lingered yesterday, when he explained: Lombardy is one of the few realities that still holds in the context of the colors that distinguish the evaluation of the epidemic. The region still white. We are still on quite good numbers, but that we see day by day, little by little, they are cracking and they are leading us towards a situation that could change from white to yellow.

At the center of the scenario, Bertolaso ​​still puts the evolution of the vaccine campaign: This year we have to face one anyway restart of the spread of the virus, which is luckily still controlled and braked by this one huge vaccination campaign, that the one that is protecting and defending us. Now we have started with the third dose, we have reached coverage between 30 and 35 percent of those who are eligible today. Thank goodness we see that bookings are increasing day by day, we are already on very important numbers and we are convinced that this trend will continue to increase.

The law says that if the incidence exceeds the level of 50, but remains below the 150, the passage in the yellow zone does not trigger if the occupancy of ICU beds remains below 10 per cent and that in Covid hospital wards below 15. Today the beds occupied in the maximum care wards are 45, 2.9 per cent of the total. There are 409 inpatients, 6.4 percent of the overall capacity about 6,400 beds. Last year, following the trend of infections, the occupation of the hospitals had reached peaks of extreme crisis in about a month and a half: between 3 October and 11 November 2020, the number of people admitted to intensive care increased from 42 to 764, in the other wards from 293 to 6,907. In 2021, remaining in the last month, intensive care is substantially stable (indeed decreased from 53 to 45), other coronavirus hospitalizations increased from 276 to 409. Significant growth, but not at a multiplicative rate. It will take at least a couple of weeks to understand what evolution this long, slow growth will take.

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November 12, 2021 | 08:10

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