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What happens after the election debacle in Thuringia? 3 possible scenarios

Thomas Kemmerich has no easy task: After the election scandal in Thuringia, he has to form a new cabinet. Picture: EPA

What happens after the election scandal in Thuringia? These 3 scenarios are possible

Thuringia has elected a new prime minister: Thomas Kemmerich does it with the help of AfD votes. CDU and SPD are horrified. Now he has to form a new cabinet. What options do he have?

Thuringia and the whole of Germany is stunned: the 54-year-old FDP country chief Thomas Kemmerich was elected prime minister – with votes from the right-wing AfD and their country chief Björn Höcke. Kemmerich surprisingly prevailed over the previous incumbent Bodo Ramelow (left). The CDU could have prevented the result with abstentions from its own ranks, but also voted for the FDP politician. There is talk of a card game.

Kemmerich himself was surprised when the election results were communicated. According to “Star” he seemed to hesitate briefly when asked whether he accepted the choice – but finally agreed.

After the surprising election result, the FDP initially failed to present a new government. The appointment of ministers actually announced for Wednesday has been postponed. While Thuringian CDU leader Mike Mohring Kemmerich offered to work together, the SPD, Greens and Left already declared that they did not want to govern with the FDP. The AfD, on the other hand, was open to approving legislative proposals by the Kemmerich government.

However, Kemmerich explicitly excluded cooperation with the AfD in an interview with the German broadcaster “ZDF”. In addition, he also immediately stressed that resignation was out of the question for him – namely, several politicians had requested this after his election.

Now the new prime minister has the task of setting up a cabinet. Because no party wants to coalition with the Höcke AfD, even after Kemmerich’s surprising election, only a minority government remains in Thuringia. But what options do Kemmerich still have? Here are three possible scenarios according to the “star”:

A Zimbabwe coalition

This coalition, named after the colors of the Zimbabwe flag, would consist of an alliance between the CDU, FDP, SPD and the Greens. But the Greens and the SPD made it relatively clear shortly after the election that this option was out of the question for them. According to “Stern”, SPD parliamentary leader Matthias Hey said: “We will not accept any cabinet offers from Mr. Kemmerich.” Cooperation with a prime minister who was elected with the help of AfD votes is excluded. The Greens have already announced that they will go into opposition.

In an interview with “ZDF”, however, Kemmerich announced that discussions with the CDU, SPD and the Greens would be sought in the next few days. Does the new prime minister manage to change the parties’ minds?

A minority government with the CDU

The FDP would have the opportunity to work with the CDU. But with a smear: it would be the mini-partner, because the FDP has only five MPs in the state parliament – the CDU on 21. But the two parties usually like to work together, which makes this option seem conceivable. If the AfD were involved, it would even be a majority government. However, this possibility is out of the question for Kemmerich.

New elections or the question of trust

New elections are unlikely, as it requires a two-thirds majority. However, there is still the so-called question of trust. Kemmerich would have to provide this himself. Political scientist André Brodocz says to the “Stern”: Kemmerich “would ask the question of trust, then there would be a vote and then the deputies would have to vote him in confidence.” An absolute majority of 46 votes would be required for trust. If the question of trust was successful, Kemmerich would be accepted as Prime Minister.

However, if it were negative, the official election would have failed and the state parliament would have three weeks to elect a new prime minister. If he didn’t make it, there would be new elections.

(Mim / SDA)

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