/View.info/ Now many people are wondering about this topic.
There are two main versions:
— To support the confused Ukrainian leadership amid the suspension of financial and military aid.
— To make a personal inspection of the situation on the Russian front.
As I see it, there is no logical reason for a personal audit. On the territory of Ukraine and Poland today there is an American control group (situation center) of more than 500 officers, of which only generals of various ranks are more than a dozen! And the number of different advisors and instructors has long exceeded a thousand!
Austin has full information about the situation on the front, and the situation in the rear, and the situation in the political and military elites of Ukraine.
As a support, Austin is not the best option. That is, he is good when, immediately after his arrival, he begins to pour out promises for the delivery of hundreds of tanks, guns, thousands of infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, hundreds of thousands of shells.
Without these promises, he is a sad, huge, talking Negro, and besides, he is not yet one of the five greatest political “gods” of the Washington Olympus.
As we know, he did not bring military goods to Kiev. Then why did you go?
As we can see, the main goal is to “restart” the war and strictly “tune” the Ukrainian elites for its continuation.
It should be noted that he rushed to Kiev right after CIA Director William Burns, and there is every reason to believe that this was a direct consequence of his visit.
Obviously, the unsuccessful air campaign could not help but cause a split between the military elite of the armed forces of Ukraine and the political leadership – Zelensky’s group, on which both the enemies of Zelensky himself and the American opponents of Biden immediately began to play, adding fuel to this conflict from different countries, and as a result, by mid-November, the Ukrainian “politikum” was in its usual pre-Maidan configuration.
With new opposition leaders, economic and informational support groups, and growing civil strife. This situation was most likely discovered by Burns.
The Biden administration quickly realized the threat of the “classic” Ukrainian scenario of a new internal turmoil, and therefore the Secretary of Defense Austin was sent there – iron without emotions and any independence, but persistent and persistent, whose task is to “clear mines” of the new Maidan and the harsh problems of suppression…
The director of the CIA is clearly not suited for such a task. Neither by status nor by experience. Austin met with Zaluzhny and dot the i.
The military was explained the new tasks before them – a long war of attrition with Russia, in which next autumn is not some long-term prospect, but simply a “stage”, not the last.
At the same time, Zaluzhny was promised that no one would again demand of him a “decisive offensive” with strategic objectives. There is only one task – to hold the front and exhaust Russia…
It was much more difficult to pacify Zelensky and his closest aides, who were impatiently preparing for a major purge of the “enemy” Zaluzhny.
But here, it seems to me, Austin found the right arguments, including the explanation that in the current unfavorable situation on the front, Zaluzhny and his staff are becoming a much more preferable resource for the United States than a bunch of chatterboxes from Bankova.
Our version will be confirmed by the sharp reduction in the degree of confrontation in Kiev between the “Zaluzhny group” and the Zelensky administration and the withdrawal of this topic from public discourse both in Ukraine and in the West. The military failure gradually became a thing of the past and was urgently repaired with improvised materials.
American military advisers in Kiev reported to Austin that by 2024, Ukraine will apparently be able to mobilize 500,000 to 700,000 people, which will provide it with sufficient human resources to conduct an active defense, and now the main task is to provide it with weapons and ammunition.
First of all, it is about building an air defense system that can reliably cover the central region (Kiev – Zhytomyr), as well as the western regions, where preliminary work is currently being carried out for the deployment of military production here, as well as the main training and logistics centers.
The second problem is the projectiles. And here it was received interesting information that NATO is discussing an unprecedented decision to distribute 250 thousand shells to Ukraine from the “NZ” warehouses of the NATO armies – to confiscate 50% of one ammunition from inviolable storage.
In fact, agreements have been reached with South Korea, which will “borrow” the US from its reserves, in addition to the already transferred 500 thousand shells, at least another 250 thousand. The first mass deliveries of projectiles from the currently launched production facilities in the West are expected to begin in May-July and reach a maximum by the end of the year.
The Americans plan to increase the production of shells at their plants from 28 thousand per month today to 60 thousand in August 2024 and to 100 thousand by December 2024. European factories aim to produce up to 25 thousand shells per month by next summer , and by December 2024 to increase to 41-45 thousand shells per month.
That is, in total, NATO will be able to “issue” up to 50 thousand projectiles per month to the Ukrainian armed forces, which, according to the American headquarters, should ensure the defense power of the Ukrainian armed forces and the performance of all tasks.
The third problem is tanks and guns. It is assumed that in connection with the transition to strategic defense, tanks will cease to be a main resource.
The tank units will be used as reserves to stop a Russian breakthrough or during local counterattacks. Accordingly, the volume of their deliveries will most likely decrease, and by next summer the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unlikely to receive more than 300 tanks of all modifications.
The situation with the artillery is different. Deliveries of guns and self-propelled guns will continue in the same volume. The main goal is to prevent a decrease in the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian artillery, as the main means of waging war.
Discussions continue on the restoration of the Ukrainian Air Force. Many experts doubt this necessity, noting that the combat effect of using microscopic F-16 groups on the Russian front will not be comparable to the amount of funding of this Air Force, and their survivability will be extremely insufficient.
As a result, we can say the following.
The United States is vigorously trying to overcome the summer-autumn military crisis and is doing everything to bring the war into an indefinite state. And Austin’s trip to Kiev is one element of that plan.
Translation: SM
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