Western assessments of Ukraine’s ongoing “counteroffensive” to reclaim Russian occupied territory have appeared to be getting colder.
On the 8th, CNN reported comprehensively on the assessment of senior US and Western officials that Ukraine is increasingly unlikely to recapture territories lost to Russia.
“The briefing we received was sobering,” said U.S. Congressman Mike Quigley, who recently met with U.S. military commanders after observing Ukrainian armored exercises in Europe. “It reminded me of the difficulties Ukraine is facing. This is the most difficult time of the war,” he told CNN.
Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territoryhttps://t.co/9r1UzUl7W9
— CNN (@CNN) August 8, 2023
“We will still see if Ukraine has a chance to make any progress over the next few weeks,” said a senior Western diplomat. I said on this show.
A senior Western diplomatic official said, “Russian forces have layered defenses, and Ukrainian forces have not been able to break through even the first line of defense for the past seven to eight weeks.”
“If we fight for another few weeks, what are the odds of sudden success with an already weakened military force?” he added.
■ Zelensky “Difficulty due to lack of equipment”
“The counteroffensive is proceeding more slowly than expected,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a joint interview with Latin American media released on the 6th.
— The Rio Times (@TheRioTimes) August 6, 2023
Also, President Zelensky said at the Aspen Security Forum last month that “the reason for the slow progress is that more and more advanced weapons from the West are not being delivered on time.”
“We planned to launch (counteroffensive) in the spring, but we didn’t,” Zelensky said.
In an interview with the BBC in June, “(the transition) is slower than expected,” but added, “Some people think of this as a Hollywood movie and expect immediate results, but that cannot be the case.”
See also: Zelensky admits sluggishness in ‘counterattack’ “War is not a movie”…Russia, Ukraine’s presidential office, etc. strike warning
■ Tasks to break through the Russian defense line
On the 8th, CNN commented that the main task of the Ukrainian army is to break through Russia’s multiple defense lines on the eastern and southern axes.
Russian forces laid tens of thousands of mines and an extensive network of trenches in the area, and Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses, the broadcast said.
Because of this, he added, Ukrainian military commanders are focusing on reducing losses by reorganizing or withdrawing some units.
However, a senior U.S. official added that the U.S. is aware of the difficulties faced by Ukrainian forces, but hopes for new progress.
“Neither the United States nor Ukraine recognize that the counterattack is going to be harder and slower than they would like,” the official said.
■ Anticipate deterioration of combat conditions
The problem is that combat conditions, such as weather conditions, are expected to deteriorate over time.
Just as the front line stalled last winter, Western officials estimate that after the summer the chances for Ukrainian forces to advance will diminish.
Several officials feared that opportunities for Ukrainian forces to advance could be further limited as autumn approaches, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to deteriorate.
It also revealed difficulties in converting the Ukrainian forces into a combined mechanized combat unit, with Western-supplied tanks and advanced weapon systems sometimes only available for eight weeks or so, a senior U.S. military official told CNN.
A senior U.S. military official pointed out, “Ukrainian forces are trying to show Russia’s vulnerability with recent attacks on the Russian mainland, but one of the reasons for such reckless attacks is the slow speed of counterattacks.”
CNN explained that the West’s recent assessment was a marked departure from the optimism at the start of the ‘counteroffensive’.
Western officials said initial optimism was “unrealistic” and the current pessimistic assessment is forcing Ukraine to seek peace, including territorial concessions.
■ Germany and Poland extend Patriot air defense network deployment
Germany plans to extend the stationing period of Patriot missile batteries deployed in Poland until the end of this year.
Germany offers to extend Patriot missile deployment to Poland https://t.co/GBzIOEeBcs
— Financial Times (@FT) August 8, 2023
The German Ministry of Defense said in a statement on the 8th that it had made the offer to Poland.
Previously, in January of this year, Germany deployed three batteries of Patriot missiles and about 300 troops to Zamosc in southeastern Poland.
In November of last year, a Ukrainian missile fell on the nearby village of Prozevodow, killing two people.
The accident was attributed to Ukraine’s misfire, but as concerns over the escalation of war in Eastern Europe escalated, Germany decided to provide air defense missiles for up to six months to Zamosc, 50 km from the Ukrainian border.
Regarding the reason for the extension, the German Ministry of Defense cited the reason that the Patriot missiles are making a valuable contribution to the protection of civilians and the eastern side of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance.
Security concerns are mounting in Poland, which shares a border with Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, as well as Russia’s ally Belarus.
It seems that Belarus has recently started military exercises near the border with Poland, taking into account the fact that tensions are rising.
The Polish government announced on the same day that it would increase military forces along the border with Belarus.
■ Insufficient supply “No further extension”
Poland has consistently asked Germany to extend its Patriot deployment.
When German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius visited Zamosc, Poland last month, the German side did not immediately respond to the request, but eventually concluded with an extension.
However, the German side drew a line, saying, “There will be no extension (deployment of Patriot missile batteries) after 2023.”
This is due to the fact that next year, some of the three batteries will be maintained and others will be deployed to the NATO Rapid Response Force.
Patriot missile batteries are currently in short supply for all NATO needs.
This is VOA News Jongsu Oh.
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2023-08-09 14:30:00