Source: Futures Daily
Since November,MethanolThe futures price fluctuated within a narrow range of 2450-2650 yuan / ton. Spurred by news that the Biden administration announced sanctions against a group of tax evaders identified as “participants in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trade,” methanol rose sharply last Friday, but the sanctions’ impact on future imports of methanol has little effect. In the near future, the methanol trend will still return to fundamentals, but there is no obvious upward driver in the fundamentals.
On the supply side, falling domestic start-ups and the slow unloading of imports led to expectations of a decline in methanol supply from the previous month. On the one hand, although coal-methanol profit is still a big loss, the domestic startup closed two consecutive weeks of decline last week, and the operating rate fell from 66.46% to 69.3%. to the reluctance of methanol producers to stop maintenance in winter, because it is not easy to restart the device that is shut down for maintenance when the temperature is low. In addition, this year’s methanol natural gas plant in southwest China plans to restrict gas starting in December, so the decline in methanol production is expected to be limited. At the same time, although Ningxia Kunpeng has entered materials and will produce products in the near future, the release of new methanol supplies in November is expected to be limited.
On the other hand, due to poor unloading efficiency caused by recently concentrated queues at the port, some cargo sources are expected to be delayed until December. Additionally, the Biden administration recently announced it will impose sanctions on a group of “sanctions dodgers involved in Iran’s petrochemical and oil trade.” Some import traders said there are no methanol traders in the sanctioned companies and that current payment methods and currency have bypassed the United States. Some other import traders said that in recent years those who have been sanctioned are all small traders. Therefore, according to the analysis of the current situation, the sanctions will have a limited impact on future methanol imports.
From a demand perspective, declining MTO demand and weak traditional downstream demand have led to expectations of a decline in overall methanol demand. At present, OMT profits are still losing a lot, and MTO plants that were shut down early on and reduced their charges are still expected to be difficult to recover in the near term. In addition, the 330,000-ton MTO plant in Qinghai Salt Lake has recently been restarted, and the 600,000-ton MTO plant in Ningbo Funde is expected to be overhauled for 7-10 days this week. Overall, the demand for MTO will decline. As for traditional downstream, except for the decline in formaldehyde initiation, other traditional downstream starts are up slightly, and overall demand is expected to remain stable.
At the same time, port inventory has accumulated slightly to a low level over the past three weeks, rising from 14,200 tonnes to 567,100 tonnes last week. Although the unloading efficiency at the port has recently been low, considering the Ningbo fund review is expected this week, there will be a possibility of continued accumulation of warehouses in the following period. In the first two weeks of November, against the backdrop of declining domestic production, the inventory of mainland methanol producers has steadily accumulated to a high level over the years. Producers are expected to have storage demand in the following period .
According to the above analysis, Ningbo Funde is expected to be overhauled this week, Ningxia Kunpeng will release products in the near future, and the mainland methanol inventory has accumulated to a high level over the years, and the fundamentals are weak. present, there is no obvious upward momentum. The author suggests that in the next stage, pay attention to the commissioning of Shenghong Refining & Chemical, MTO equipment restart and gas restriction situation at home and abroad.(Author’s Unit: Dice Futures)
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP
Responsible editor: Zhang Jingdi
