In the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has been going on for almost a month, there has clearly been an effect «hovering”
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Russian «blitzkrieg failed, failed to capture Kyiv and other large cities of Ukraine, failed to force the Ukrainian leadership to capitulate and change the government in Ukraine to pro-Russian puppets.
It is very noticeable that Russia lacks the strength and resources to end this war victoriously. (including due to large-scale economic sanctions against Russia, as well as due to miscalculations in the planning of this military operation). And Russian soldiers still lack motivation in this war (after all, you have to fight not with mythical «Nazis”, but, in fact, it seems to be with the fraternal people, as Russian propaganda previously claimed). But with the motivation everything is in order with the Ukrainians, who are desperately fighting for their country and against the enemy invasion. And this is the main factor that prevents Russia from winning this war. For us, this is a people’s war, a war for the survival of the country and the whole people.
But, unfortunately, Ukrainian the army is even more lacking in strength and resources in order to move from effective defense to a successful counteroffensive. With all the current problems of Russia, its army has an advantage both in numbers and in weapons. (especially in the air), and in the ability to replenish the resources spent on the war. We have destroyed a significant part of the country, its economy and infrastructure, especially the military. And we can replenish the acute shortage of resources mainly through the support of our partners, which is still not enough.
The resulting balance on the battlefield may be delayed, but it cannot be eternal. Hence the various predictive assessments of how Russia can act further. Maybe a new attempt to storm Kyiv (after the accumulation of resources for such an attack), but a change in military strategy is possible with a switch to an attempt to occupy the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, in particular in order to cut off Ukraine from the Azov and Black Seas (some Russian sources spoke about such a scenario even before the war).
The scenario of a quick victory in the current conditions looks unrealistic
The war can also go into a positional format (as happened with the war in Donbass in 2015). At the same time, Russia will continue to methodically destroy our country with the help of rocket attacks and air bombardments. In the event of such a scenario, the need for the creation of a modern air defense and missile defense system will critically increase for Ukraine. And we can solve this problem only with the active support of our partners.
Exactly «hangup” war stimulated the negotiation process. The Kremlin failed to defeat Ukraine on the battlefieldso they try to put the squeeze on us (at least partially) during the negotiations, simultaneously destroying Ukraine with bombardments and shelling, thereby influencing the negotiation process. But Ukraine is not going to give up on the negotiating field either. Our task in the negotiations is to achieve an end to the war and the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
Is any rational compromise possible in these negotiations? Theoretically, this is always possible. But in practice, both sides have fundamental differences on most items on the negotiating agenda. And the search for pragmatic compromises involves concessions on both sides.
Voices are already being heard from our side: no concessions, war to the bitter end. It would be ideal. But the scenario of a quick victory in the current conditions looks unrealistic. And the prolongation of the war is fraught with great losses and even greater destruction. Therefore, negotiations cannot be abandoned, but we must clearly define on what issues we are ready to seek compromises, and on which we will be fundamentally uncompromising.
It is obvious that the Russian side no longer considers negotiations with Ukraine only as a way to achieve the capitulation of Kyiv to Moscow. Such intentions they had at the beginning of the war. And now they are ready to discuss some compromise formulations. There is some progress. But so far it does not seem that the Russian side is ready to look for real compromises to get out of this war. The main problem is Putin. He is paranoid obsessed with anti-Ukrainian complexes and propaganda clichés invented by his own apparatus, with the notorious «denazification and demilitarization. It is Putin’s anti-Ukrainian paranoia that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it will also be the main obstacle in negotiations to end this war. And if Putin’s position in relation to the war against Ukraine (or the situation in the Russian authorities) will not change at least in part, there will be no success in the negotiations.
The decisive factors in further negotiations will not be so much the efforts of the negotiators (with all due respect to our negotiators), but the resilience of Ukraine in repelling Russian aggression, the readiness of our partners to more effectively help Ukraine in strengthening its defense potential, and the internal socio-economic and political situation in Russia.
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