Vladimir Putin photographed when he delivered his speech on “the state of the kingdom” last week. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP / NTB
More and more Russians want an end to the war – but the Kremlin still has support to continue, says an expert to VG.
Sunday 3 March at 20:26
The short version
- British intelligence reports heavy losses for Russian soldiers in Ukraine, with 983 dead or wounded per day in February.
- Independent Russian media estimate approx. 75,000 deaths among Russian soldiers in the war.
- Opinion polls show that 75-80% support the special operation in Ukraine.
- Professor Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen believes that more and more Russians are opposed to the war, partly due to high casualty figures and inflation.
Sea view
British intelligence reports Sunday on heavy losses for the Russians in Ukraine:
- Daily losses for the Russians in February 2024 were the worst since the war began.
- 983 soldiers were either killed or wounded per day in February.
- 355,000 Russian soldiers are probably dead or wounded since the war started.
The figures agree well with an American calculation at New Year which concluded with 315,000 Russian soldiers put out of action.
Independent Russian media have found around 45,000 named Russian soldiers who have lost their lives in the war. They reckon that the real number of deaths is about 75,000, reports the credible Russian media Mediazona.
In February, the Russians captured Avdijivka in the Donetsk region and were on the offensive. But progress thus cost many human lives.
Volodymyr Zelenskyj claimed a week ago that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the war.
A Russian military vehicle drives through Avdijivka. The battle for this small town has cost many Russian soldiers their lives. The picture is from 20 February. Photo: RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY / Reuters / NTB
Opinion polls – which we have to take with a pinch of salt in Russia – show that 75-80 percent support the “special operation” in Ukraine.
– 20–25 percent disagree, depending on how the question is asked, manager Denis Volkov at the Russian polling institute Levada.
– More and more Russians are against the war, says Professor Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen at the Aleksanteri Institute in Helsinki to VG.
– Why?
– People are starting to feel the war. There are large loss figures, inflation is greater, and people feel the effect in their everyday lives. That is why more and more people are against it.
– I’m guessing that a real opinion poll will give around 40 percent opposition to the war. So there is still a majority for the war, continues Tynkkynen.
– Is the Kremlin concerned with what people think?
– This is an authoritarian regime. Putin and his cronies don’t care what people think. If a majority is against the war, there is pressure, but it is still a dictatorship. Russia is a completely different country than it was ten years ago. Back then, most Russians had something to say – but they didn’t want to. Russia annexed Crimea, and there was no resistance. Now more and more people are affected, and more people are against the war.
Ukrainian soldiers photographed near the front in the Donetsk region on Saturday 2 March. Photo: Efrem Lukatsky / AP / NTB
Denis Volkov writes that around 45 percent are “hawks” – who unconditionally support both the president and the military. In this group there are more men and older people, he signs Levada.
Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, on the other hand, believes that only around 20 percent are enthusiastic supporters of the war.
– Just as many, approximately 20 per cent, are very strongly against the war. Thus, around 60 per cent do not express any opinion, they are apathetic, he says to VG.
2024-03-03 19:26:07
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