The wave of COVID is disappearing and the predicament on the Black Sea is currently excellent. This is how BAS mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov analyzes the scenario with the COVID-19 pandemic in our region.
“The incidence in Varna, Burgas and Dobrich is reducing. Now is the time for a beach holiday getaway, for which there are such initiatives”, also wrote the mathematician, quoted by DarikNews.bg. And he provides: «August is tranquil, as it was foretold to you. The hospitals will not be entire. The places alongside the sea are all in the eco-friendly zone. Delighted holiday seasons also in September “.
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According to him, the excellent developments will carry on right until the election and soon right after. “I have by now composed to you about the method of larger non-compliance with the actions at the stop of August. The social method is in homeostasis, it will previous until the starting of Oct, when the elections will be held. Just after that, there will be a different week of relative relaxed and the account will little by little begin coming in. Final yr, if you try to remember, that’s how we got a secondary peak. This calendar year it will not be like that, but we be expecting a deep and interesting autumn. But anyway. So far it is really all appropriate, “he claimed. also published.
Vitanov also shares his prediction for September. The “Empty hospitals” circumstance will also be stable in September. The steps imposed more than time have get over the wave and have brought the process into a homeostasis with reducing morbidity. The actions are in the process of being lifted, but homeostasis will last very long sufficient for a secure circumstance of “empty hospitals” in September and no unique complications right up until the elections and about 2 months afterwards.
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And he analyzed: «During this wave, the ill in France had reached 200,000 days. Here – weak vaccination, but even now a compact wave, dampened and trampled by a several, but exactly imposed steps in terms of time and volume. But this is mainly because Gagno was clever, he did not get vaccinated and did not observe the steps. So, then Gagno, every person is silly, only Gagno is smart. Now Gagno will work elegantly and beautifully on the autumn-winter wave, contemplating about how crafty he is and how he is heading to fuck the heavenly host to drink with no paying. Gagno, Gagno-oh-oh-oh, this host sees anything and can not wreck all the things. Well, consider it “.
“Do not question her – what about Gagno from the Balkans, clever and handsome, understands every little thing, can contain any homeostasis. By the conclusion of September it is expected that homeostasis will be guarded, after mid-October this will grow to be really very clear and in November the bill of the heavenly host should really also arrive “, also wrote the mathematician in his assessment on Facebook.
Vitanov also printed a prediction for the mortality of COVID-19 sufferers. “That’s just one particular figure for each day. Mortality by the conclusion of the” Vacant Hospitals “situation will be lower, but there will be times with double-digit fatalities. This most up-to-date wave-linked craze is at present breaking down.” Nevertheless, the mathematician advises: “Warning! Even if it flows easily, there are nonetheless limited sticks. Far better not to pull a stick. This way you can be positive that you do not draw the quick stick. It is feasible that there will be a further day with a loss of life toll in double figures, but no tragedies are foreseen “.
At the stop, prof. Vitanov published a summary of his assessment: “152 times immediately after the end of the epidemic unexpected emergency situation, the circumstance is relaxed. The well being program is experiencing troubles, the” empty hospitals “circumstance is steady. Widespread propagation is extinct. cluster diffusion weakens slowly and gradually, but does not weaken quick more than enough. The indices are slipping. Okay, extremely superior. We are in the favorable circumstance. You know the forecast: September will be tranquil. Hospitals will not fill. ”
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