The head of the High Biocontainment Unit of the Agrifood Research and Technology Institute (IRTA) and virologist, Xavier Abad, does not rule out the arrival of a seventh wave, but believes that a fourth dose of the covid vaccine would not be necessary. He has explained it in an interview on ACN, where he has also talked about the situation that is being experienced in China, where they are betting on a covid-zero strategy that, he maintains, “would be doomed to failure” in the Western world. Regarding the change in trend regarding the coronavirus, Abad says that this year “no makes sense” to talk about the transition from a pandemic to an endemicand that one more winter will have to pass to see how society’s immune system reacts and if new variants of the virus can enter the scene.
In fact, right now, he considers that it cannot be determined with certainty if there will be a new rebound in covid in the fall and, if so, if it will have more or less effects than the previous ones. One of the points in favor, however, is that the immune response to Catalonia could be “good enough” to lower the ramp of the seventh wave and make it “less aggressive than some predictions are suggesting” in the event that the variants are similar to those already known.
Thus, in the current scenario, the virologist does not consider that the administration of a fourth dose of the vaccine in the general population needs to be studied, beyond risk groups. “In general, I don’t see it, but we will have to see how the situation is in six months,” he pointed out. In this sense, he has also positively valued the removal of the mask in interior spaces, a measure that he believes “does not come at a bad time”. Abad acknowledges that transmission and, possibly, hospitalizations will go up, but he also points out that it will not be a situation that cannot be managed. For this reason, in the face of a future wave, the measures would not be the most restrictive either, and only distances, hand hygiene, the mask and teleworking would be recovered. “Measures would be adopted, however they would be the ones with which we have finished this last phase, a scenario of hard confinement is unthinkable, and one of intense restrictions, quite unlikely,” he details.
covid zero strategy
The The situation in Catalonia is completely different from what is being experienced in China, where they are betting on strict confinements, limitation of movement or exclusive activity of essential services. This is already beginning to cause problems of shortages and some discomfort among the population, which is seeing how the measures from the beginning of 2020 are being re-implemented. As Abad relates, the Chinese government “does not want the virus to spread”, although the situation it has been significantly complicated by the entry of the omicron variant. According to the virologist, one of the reasons is – despite having more than 85% of the population immunized – they have received inactive vaccines, “less effective” and that have a “lower yield”. On the other hand, there is a significant number of elderly people who do not have the complete regimen, and have not received any booster dose.
“China has put on the table that there is no perfect barrier, and that not vaccinating the most sensitive people is a bad idea,” says Abad. He also details that maintaining a covid-zero strategy makes sense if it is to achieve “other goals.” That is why he appreciates that Catalonia has chosen to follow the strategy of the Western world, vaccinating the elderly first and then the general population. “The one followed here is apparently the correct one,” he adds.
The covid, a “soft” pandemic
Finally, regarding possible future pandemics, the virologist recalls that the covid can be considered to have been one of the “mild” ones and that they can come from more serious ones that generate “a higher mortality”. Thus, he warns that today society does not have a system with “human, economic and technical means” to face a more virulent virus in the initial jump. Once established, however, it does maintain that work would be done as has been done with covid to manage its spread among the population.
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