One can already see a subtle hint of the re-increase of new infections, which could possibly be related to less discipline during the Easter holidays. The current easing, which is currently taking place in many countries, is likely to have corresponding consequences due to uncertainties and unintended effects, and one must expect the infections to rise to a “no longer tolerable level”.
In summer, there could also be a seasonal effect, with a combination of sun exposure, dryness and a lot of time outdoors, fewer infections. Then there would be less immunity to the population, and in combination with the easing, one would run into an “immunologically naive” population in the winter: “Then the ‘lock-down’ could threaten again,” said Drosten.
Virologist Drosten on CoV research
Christian Drosten from the Charite in Berlin is the leading SARS CoV-2 researcher in Europe. In ZIB2, Drosten explains what has been learned about the corona virus in recent months.
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Believe in vaccine in a year
The virologist believes that broad sections of the population can be provided with a vaccine in a year. “The question is, how is it going until then?” According to Drosten, there is a possibility that unknown effects such as an undetected background immunity could occur due to previous infections with the common cold coronavirus. This would only shorten the epidemic.
Drosten also advises caution during summer activities. He would not say that it was “de facto safe” outside. Basically, however, it is the case that “one aerosol component is less effective outdoors” – namely that of the fine droplets in the air, which could well become an epidemiological component. Every dilution of the air is positive, and in any case the risk of infection outdoors is small compared to half or full hour stays in closed rooms with many people.
Nevertheless, in individual cases – such as close contact in the swimming pool or contact-intensive sports such as football – one has to look closely and assess the situation individually. “Overall, exercise and sport are of course a good thing,” says the virologist.
Caution with studies on children
One should also be careful with studies that show that children transmit less coronavirus. To this end, far too little research has been done, according to Drosten. So far, the results have also been contradictory. A recent Dutch study showing that children in families are less affected is not statistically significant. A lot more research is needed in this area.
He was rather critical of the Swedish model: “The truth lies in the middle.” Germany and Austria had a short “lock-down” and thus brought the pandemic under control well. In Sweden, responsibility was delegated to people, and “this was apparently not enough”. Mortality is rising rapidly, and Sweden will also end up in the same place, “only with a lot more deaths”.
“Of historical importance”
In principle, Drosten also emphasized once again that due to the high mortality rate, the coronavirus cannot be compared to seasonal flu. “We don’t have an exceptional situation like this in the records, so you have to go back to the Spanish flu,” the virologist emphasized the significance of the situation. “We are already experiencing something of historical importance.” Even if the coronavirus epidemic is in check, it will be of great importance and serve as a “model for pandemic preparation and research”. In the long term, according to the virologist, the virus will be one of the series of colds.
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