It was US Central Command, with geographic responsibility for the Middle East, which announced that an Ohio submarine has arrived in their area of responsibility.
A photo published with the announcement appears to show such a submarine. It was apparently taken in the Suez Canal, northeast of the Egyptian capital Cairo, writes CNNwho believe to have geolocated the image.
The announcement is seen as a clear deterrence message, aimed at Iran and the Iranian regime’s proxy groups in Yemen, to avoid a spread of the Gaza war.
– That is what the context is – an upgrade of the existing deterrence strategy which aims to limit the conflict as much as possible, says senior researcher at the peace research institute PRIO, Jørgen Jensehaugen, to Dagbladet.
The US has already deployed two aircraft carriers, at least 2,000 soldiers and air defense systems to the Middle East.
Experts: This happens behind closed doors
Was probably in Tromsø
The US has a total of 18 Ohio submarines, 14 of which are equipped with nuclear missiles.
The remaining four are said to have been disarmed in connection with the “New Start” disarmament agreement concluded between the USA and Russia in 2010, and instead equipped with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles.
– The cruise missiles deliver accurate and solid impact. None of America’s adversaries can ignore that threat, former director of operations in the US Pacific Command, Carl Schuster, told CNN in 2021.
Parts of this striking power were shown in March 2011, when such a submarine fired almost 100 cruise missiles at Libya during operation “Odyssey Dawn”. It was the first time such a submarine had been used in an attack.
The US does not say which submarine is in the picture, but one of the cruise missile submarines – “USS Florida” – recently visited Tromsø. It is America’s largest reactor-powered submarine.
Researcher and naval captain at the Naval Academy, Tor Ivar Strømmen, believes that it is this submarine that the US has now sent to the conflict area.
– The picture shows the DDS on deck – in that case she has a mixed cargo with a total of 98 Tomahawks and up to 66 SEAL special soldiers on board, including equipment and vessels, he tells Dagbladet.
THE COUNTRY’S LARGEST: The American reactor-powered submarine is a whopping 170 meters long and is the country’s largest with conventional weapons on board. Photo: Abaca / NTB Show more
– Keeps the opponent confused
The announcement of the submarine came on the same day as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant. He is said to have reconfirmed the US’s commitment to deter “any” actor who wants to escalate the war.
Strømmen also assumes that the submarine is a clear deterrent message, aimed at Iran and the proxy groups.
– It is to show that the US is ready to strike quickly and immediately if these actors choose to escalate the conflict between Israel and Gaza (Hamas) into something bigger, he says.
RESEARCHER: Naval captain at the Naval Academy, Tor Ivar Strømmen. Photo: Defense Show more
He explains the tactic of going out with the picture and the otherwise sparse information:
– If such a submarine is to function as a deterrent, then the person to be deterred must know that the submarine is a threat. Therefore, the US will often announce that such a submarine has been deployed to an area – such as the Middle East. Of course, they will never announce exactly where she is, or where she is going. Nor what her specific mission is.
Deterrence works best if you know a threat, a capacity, but very little beyond this.
– Deterrence is, after all, something that strictly speaking only exists in the mind of the person being deterred, and there is therefore always a balance between revealing available capacity and keeping opponents confused. If they know what will hit them, where and when, they can take precautions – if they are in a panic, but know that the capacity is available, then they have less leeway, says Strømmen.
GAZA: Video clips published by Hamas show soldiers emerging from tunnels and attacking Israeli military vehicles on foot. Reporter: Edward Stenlund. Video: RT / Hamas Show more
– Extraordinary effort
US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken has in recent days visited Turkey, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank, Jordan and Cyprus – also with the aim of preventing an escalation of the war.
PRIO researcher Jørgen Jensehaugen, who researches the diplomatic efforts surrounding the Arab-Israeli conflict, describes the country’s ongoing efforts as an extraordinary edition of what has been typical.
– It is turned up intensely when there is a crisis, while otherwise there is an absence of commitment. The problem is that there is no commitment to achieving a serious political solution, it is exclusively about the precarious, he says.
SENIOR RESEARCHER: Jørgen Jensehaugen at Prio. Photo: Prio Show more
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) has pronounced that Israel violates international law in its warfare on the Gaza Strip. The United States has continued to express its unreserved support for Israel, emphasizing the country’s right to self-defense.
At the same time, the risk of escalation is believed to be greater the longer the war lasts and the more intense it becomes.
– Is the US not helping to increase this risk with one hand, while at the same time trying to reduce it with the other?
– Yes, absolutely. It’s a contradiction in politics, to which they don’t really have a good answer.
Orlogkaptein Tor Ivar Strømmen adds, however:
– The more striking power the US has available, the less room for maneuver Iran has. Thus, this submarine constitutes a capacity that reduces Israel’s need to prepare for war against Iran alone. That in itself reduces the risk of an unwanted escalation. An Israel without support could quickly have reached a situation where they would have really felt a danger of destruction, an existential crisis. And if you have such a crisis, you will use all necessary means – including nuclear weapons as a last resort.
An Israel that knows the US supports them will – most likely – not feel an existential threat from Iran.
– And then they will show significantly more restraint both with regard to weapons and which escalation steps they take, continues Strømmen.
2023-11-07 06:52:31
#opponent #confused
