Short-term inflation expectations among U.S. consumers fell in November to the same level as April 2021, according to a survey released by the New York Fed on Wednesday.
The median inflation expectation one year ahead was 3.4%, down from 3.6% in October. This is the second consecutive month of decline. Expectations for inflation three and five years from now are 3% and 2.7%, respectively, unchanged from last month.
US Inflation Expectations Stabilize
Consumers’ expectations for future prices largely stable in November
Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The decline in consumers’ near-term inflation expectations reflects a number of factors. Expected prices for gasoline have fallen, and expected prices for rent and college education are at their lowest levels since January 2021. Inflation expectations among people over 60 have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years.
Consumers’ views on the labor market have deteriorated slightly. On average, the probability that respondents believe they will lose their job within the next year rose by nearly one point to 13.6%. The probability that respondents believe they will find a job after being unemployed was 55.2%, the lowest level in seven months. The region where respondents thought they were least likely to find a new job was the Midwest.
There was also a negative attitude toward moving. The odds of changing primary residence in the next 12 months are the lowest since mid-2013, when data remains available.
The consumer price index (CPI) for November, which is scheduled to be released on the 12th, is expected to be unchanged from the previous month. The drop in gasoline prices is expected to have an impact.
See table for detailed statistics.
Original title:US Year-Ahead Inflation Views Drop to Lowest Since April 2021(excerpt)
2023-12-11 18:01:00
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