Michael Coffman, director of the Russian program at the US Center for Naval Analyzes, who recently visited Ukraine, assessed the prospects for war on Twitter: “The general impression is that Ukraine wins and morale remains highbut as with any military operation, there are problems up close that are difficult to see from afar, commented the Russian BBC report.
The Ukrainian army that Kofman spoke to (he is one of the leading Western military analysts writing about this war) is confident they will be able to drive the Russian army out of Kherson by the end of the year.
At the same time, the same expert doubts that the Russian army will leave Kherson without any resistance. He believes the Russian army can do it use the newly mobilized troops to defend the city and withdraw the most combatant units from there to keep them.
“Heavy fighting is going on there,” Kofman wrote of the situation in Kherson. “Despite the limited supplies, the Russian troops do not appear to have run out of ammunition.”
According to Kofman, the capture of Kherson would bring Ukrainian gunners closer to communications leading to Crimea, but it would also reduce the front line that the Russian army must maintain. In addition, it will increase the concentration of Russian troops and create a natural barrier for the enemy in the form of a water barrier.
However, Coffman believed that war was unlikely during the winter, even though some offensive operations had been hampered by the weather. And probably the Ukrainian team will be able to take advantage of it.
According to him, Russia will continue to bomb Ukraine, which will lead to further blackouts and the need to save electricity. And while the Ukrainians are facing and their determination is only growing, as time goes by the number of hits can have a negative impact on the situation in Ukraine.
So far, Kofman has been reluctant to take the threat of another invasion from Belarus seriously. However, he admits that if the concentration of Russian troops continues and they receive heavy equipment, the situation could change.
He also believes that in 3-4 months the real effect of the Russian mobilization will begin to be felt at the front, which could prolong the war and make it difficult for Ukrainian troops to advance, but Kiev certainly takes this factor into account.
The military analyst further points out that Russia is likely to resort to a defensive strategy in the winter in the hope that during that time the army can recover from mobilization. to activate the equipment from the warehouses and to obtain new ammunition, including from North Korea.
As for Ukraine, its task, according to Kofman, will be to prevent the Russian army from regrouping and preparing for the summer campaign. In this way, he must build his own forces and finally acquire all air defense systemsto protect key infrastructure from Russian attacks.
