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US elections, where are we? – Corriere.it

The elections in the United States ended with the victory of Joe Biden, former vice president, Democrat, and the defeat of Donald Trump, outgoing president, Republican. Yet, for the first time in US history, a White House tenant did not recognize the defeat: n to the views the moment in which to do so. (CNN explains that Trump shouldn’t make any public moves before the recount in Georgia, which we talk about below.)

Not only that: without having shown any evidence so far, and despite the denials of all the electoral leaders of individual states and a group of voting security officials, Trump continues to argue – in a nation already extremely polarized – that there have been enormous episodes of electoral fraud and rigging: in particular, which a vote counting system would have canceled 2.7 million votes in his favor.

The elections just ended have been the safest in the history of the United States, have written electoral officers at the federal, state and local levels. Minister of Justice Barr however, he mandated prosecutors to investigate possible fraud. And, as we wrote who, White House lawyers have asked the courts of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona to block the process of certifying the votes.

Who looked the map of the Ap – the most reliable and cautious of the American networks, which plays a de facto semi-official role in the proclamation of the winner of the elections – would in any case be faced with a scenario not yet fully decided. Why? Where are we at? And is there really no hope, not even technically, for Trump? Let’s try to go in order.

(To stay up to date on the American elections, subscribe to AmericaCina, the daily newsletter of the Foreign editorial staff that tells the story of the two powers and their spheres of influence: click who, and register at Il Punto).

Who Won in Arizona?

During the night, both CNN and AP also assigned Arizona to Biden: worth 11 electoral votes, and it was a state that Trump had won, in 2006, by a 3.5% margin. The last Democratic candidate to win here was Bill Clinton in 1996.
Where are we at? Biden is ahead by over 11,000 votes: he has 49.41 percent of the vote, against Trump’s 49.07 percent.
Will there be a recount? Yes, if the difference between the two candidates remains below 1% of the votes. Trump argued that thousands of voters were pressured by officials to express their preference in a way that resulted in the vote being canceled. State election leader Mark Brnovich, a Republican, told Fox News he had received a thousand complaints in all, without finding any trace of fraud.
What if Arizona went to Trump? Biden would have won anyway, with 279 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).

Who Won in Georgia?

It is not yet known who won in Georgia. Biden is ahead, in this state that the Democrats have not won since Clinton, and which is worth 16 electoral votes.
Where are we at? Biden has 49.52 percent of the vote; Trump on 49.24. The difference of about 14 thousand votes. According to the CNN, over 100 counties have already certified their final result; Fulton’s (which includes Atlanta) will do it on Friday.
Will there be a recount? Yes, manual: it was announced by the Secretary of State of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, who specified that the recount will take place by November 20, the deadline for the state to certify the result of the elections. The recount will take place on a sample of cards. At the end, Trump could ask for another recount, if he were not satisfied with the result of the first: all, however, will take place by November 20.
What if Georgia goes to Trump? Biden would have won anyway, even if he lost this state.

Who Won in North Carolina?

The result is not there yet: but there is little doubt that this state should go to Trump.
Where are we at? Trump is ahead by over 70,000 ballots: 50.03 percent of the vote, against Biden’s 48.73 percent. Trump’s lead is shrinking, but virtually impossible for the Democratic candidate to beat the president here. Also because Friday expires the deadline for the arrival of the ballot papers sent by post by the day of the elections.
Will there be a recount? No, Biden shouldn’t be asking for recount.
What if North Carolina goes to Trump? Biden would have won anyway.

Who Won in Pennsylvania?

The result, here, is there: and Biden won. How much? A lot: over 60,000 votes. Biden has 49.87 percent of the vote, Trump 48.98 percent. Pennsylvania is worth 20 electoral votes: it was the assignment of this state that made all the American networks decide to declare Biden victory.
Where are we at? Trump wants to ask for the cancellation of thousands of ballots. On the contrary: tens of thousands of cards. But there is no evidence of any kind to support such a cancellation.
Will there be a recount? It seems difficult: Trump has asked to block the officialization of the results, and his electoral campaign could ask for a recount within five days of the officialization.
What if Pennsylvania goes to Trump? Biden would drop to 270 votes: he would still win, but it would be sensational. But there are, we repeat, no traces, or evidence, that lead in this direction.

Who Won in Michigan?

The result, even here, is now considered stable: Biden won the state, which it is worth 16 electoral votes. How much? A lot: over 150 thousand votes. Biden at 50.56%, Trump at 47.91%.
Where are we at? Trump has also initiated legal action in Michigan to block the recognition of the vote. But the move – even given the margin of disadvantage compared to Biden – seems more electoral (in view of a possible reappointment, in 2024) which aimed at overturning the result.
Will there be a recount? In Michigan the automatic recount if the margin between the two candidates is up to 2,000 votes. A candidate can apply for it within two days of the counting deadline if he claims to have been a victim of fraud: it should therefore be Trump who requests it, and also pays for it. It would be reimbursed if the recount actually changed the outcome. It would take up to 30 days to get a new result.
What if Michigan went to Trump? It would change everything: but it really is a less than remote possibility.

Is there room for a recount? Can Trump Recover?

As explained who, Trump can ask for recount in many states. But American political experts, starting with Nate Silver, founder of Fivethirtyeight, point out that it is almost impossible to overturn the outcome of the vote when the advantage is in the tens of thousands of ballots. How wrote in the Corriere Andrea Marinelli: In Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada it has never happened that a recount has changed the outcome of a vote in the past 20 years. The result changed in a run for the New Hampshire Senate in 1974, with the two candidates being separated by 355 ballots: and after the recount they agreed to go to the polls again. In 2004, the election for the governor of the State of Washington, the Republican candidate ended with an advantage of about 200 votes: after the recount he was overtaken by the Democrat by 130 votes. In 2008, the race to represent Minnesota in the Senate was turned upside down by the recount: Republican Norm Coleman finished with a 200-vote lead, Democrat Al Franken eventually won by 312 votes. On the presidential level, however, there is a famous case, that of 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore in Florida, where the election was decided. After the count, Bush closed with a margin of just under 2,000 preferences: up to winning the elections with 537 votes.

But what do the Republicans say about this situation?

As Massimo Gaggi wrote who, some of the most influential senators – Lindsay Graham, John Thune and Charles Grassley – have stated that Biden should have access to classified intelligence briefings that are handed to Trump: a clear stance, to begin opening the doors to recognition. of the president-elect and start the transition. Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s victories strategist, published an article in the Wall Street Journal to say that the presidential outcome will not be reversed: Trump’s efforts to demonstrate systematic fraud are unlikely to allow him to pass even one of the States disputed from Biden’s column to his own. It certainly won’t move enough to reverse the election outcome.

What are the next steps?

The decisive dates are December 8 – the day by which States must settle any electoral dispute – and December 14, when the United States constituency meets to vote for the president (the large voters, whose number varies by state in State). The new president will be sworn in on January 20, 2021, 12 noon Washington time.

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