To everyone’s surprise, the US Department of Agriculture revised down more than 1.5 million hectares of its estimate for soybean areas compared to its first forecast in March, with a decline of 4.5% compared to last year. “It really changed the tone of the market,” said Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group.
In one week, the American legume thus took more than 12%, until Monday reaching a peak not seen for almost eleven months. To this is added the strengthening oil price in recent days, which supports biofuels, one of the outlets for soy.
Separately, another USDA report, released on Monday, showed a slight deterioration in crop quality over a week in the United States, with 50% of soybeans in “fair”, “poor” or “very poor” condition. “, against 37% only last year at the same time. Although it rained last weekend in the plains and more rain is expected within a week, the drought “has probably already reduced the yield potential” of soybeans to a level that would be lower than in 2022, says Scoville.
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The contraction of areas devoted to soy has been to the benefit of the but, expected to be up more than 6% compared to the previous campaign. It “was a pretty big surprise, with a sole superior to anything you could imagine “, deciphers Gautier Le Molgat, from the firm Agritel (Argus Media France). “There was really stress about a drop in yields (of maize), and the fact that they had more surfaces calmed the worries. In two weeks, American corn prices have fallen by more than 18%, and are now flirting with their lowest level for 20 months. THE european maize has also plunged again, but to a lesser extent.
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Ukraine does not worry
“The market will continue to buy soybeans and sell corn” in the medium term, predicts Michael Zuzolo, of Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting, especially since “the Mexico speaks of a better harvest (than expected), which would reduce their imports” of American corn. Mexico is, in fact, the second largest importer of yellow beans from the United States.
As to american wheat, after having lost almost 17% in ten days, it recovered slightly on Wednesday, supported by concern about yields as the harvest began. “The quality of spring wheat is really low compared to what the market expected,” said Zuzolo, with only 48% of crops in “good” or “very good” condition, compared to 66% last year. at the same period. The monthly report from the USDA (Wasde), expected on July 12, should provide figures on this harvest.
In Europethe temps sec reduced estimates in Germany and Poland. “If it has been very hot, there may be large ears of corn but which are only filled at the bottom, with small grains or no grains at all”, warns Damien Vercambre of the Inter-Courtage firm.
After months of twists and turns on the issue of Ukrainian cerealsthe market seems to be ignoring the latest threat from Russia, whose Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that there was “no reason” to extend the agreement beyond July 17, deadline.
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Ukraine is working hard to strengthen its export capacities by routes other than the Black Sea. Some 12 terminals are notably under construction on the banks of the Danube, Ukrainian Deputy Minister in charge of Infrastructure, Yuri Vaskov, told the UkrAgroConsult site.
“Operators have given up on the corridor since the explosion (early June) of the pipeline (carrying ammonia from Russia to the Ukrainian port of Odessa)”, considers Mr. Vercambre. “If there were to be an event, it would rather be the extension of the corridor. »
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2023-07-05 19:18:54
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