Preliminary data released on Friday (9) by the University of Michigan showed that consumers’ initial one-year inflation expectations fell unexpectedly to 4.6%, the lowest since September 2021, while gasoline prices fell, increasing consumer confidence in November. consumer confidence rose to 59.1, far exceeding expectations.
According to data released by the University of Michigan, the initial value of the consumer confidence index in November rose from 56.8 in October to 59.1, well above the 56.9 expected by the market, but still lower to 70.6 in the same period last year. The current consumer confidence index in December was 60.2, higher than market expectations of 58.8, the future consumer confidence index was 58.4, higher than expected 54.5.
In terms of inflation expectations, which are closely followed by the market, US consumers’ inflation expectations for next year fell unexpectedly, from 4.9% in October to 4.6%, the lowest since September 2021. , inflation expectations for the next five years remained stable at 3%, in line with market expectations.
Although prices in the US remain elevated, inflation has shown signs of easing in recent months and the market generally expects next week’s US consumer price index (CPI) for November to show a further slowdown in inflation. inflation.
All components of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index improved in December, with one-year trading terms up 14% and long-term trading terms up moderately 6%. Furthermore, the report also showed that the median change in consumers’ income expectations rose to a 15-year high, but more than half of respondents said they expect inflation to exceed these increases in the next year.
Joanne Hsu, director of polling at the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, said in a statement that consumers’ concerns about high prices in various circumstances eased last month, although those concerns are still much more higher than a year and a half ago, pointing to inflation in the year ahead. Falling expectations are not just the result of the current drop in gasoline prices.
Joanne Hsu also said that with the continued decline in consumer purchasing power, rapid growth in credit card and auto loan balances, and concerns about continued high borrowing costs, the momentum in personal spending this year may not be sustainable.
