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Asked during a conference of the think tank Aspen Security Forum on the short-term risk of an attack on Taiwan by China, the highest American official estimated that it was “not probable” in the next 24 month.
“Having said that, the Chinese are clearly and unambiguously building the necessary capacities to give options to the country’s leadership if they wish in the future,” he added.
When asked if the United States were able to defend the island located less than 200 km from the Chinese coast, General Milley assured: “We absolutely have the capabilities, there is no doubt”. But he added that the United States wanted above all “a peaceful solution” to any dispute between Taiwan and China.
The American chief of staff was careful not to comment on the usefulness or not of reversing the long-standing policy of the United States known as “strategic ambiguity”, under which Washington helps Taiwan to build and strengthen its defense but without explicitly promising to come to its aid in the event of an attack.
“Right now it’s our policy, and it will continue for now,” he said.
The passes of arms have multiplied in recent weeks between the United States and China over the fate of this island of 23 million inhabitants, which has its own government, currency, army, but that Beijing considers one of its provinces awaiting reunification with the rest of the country, by force if necessary.
Asked about the possibility of US military intervention to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack from China, President Joe Biden replied last month in the affirmative: “Yes, we have a commitment in this direction,” he said. he declares.
These words seemed to contradict the “strategic ambiguity” of the United States, and the White House had subsequently assured that its policy towards Taiwan had not changed: the United States recognized since 1979 Communist China, to the detriment of Taiwan, but the American Congress at the same time imposes the supply of arms to the island for its defense.
General Milley considered that the rise of China was a destabilizing factor for the planet.
“We are entering a tripolar world, with the United States, Russia and China as great powers,” he said.
With three actors instead of two, “we have more complexity,” he added. And with the advent of technologies like artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles and the militarization of space, “we are entering a world that in my opinion is potentially much more strategically unstable” than during the Last 60 years.
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