“With the technologies at our disposal, I foresee a future characterized by updated compounds on the variants that worry, a very strong shield, which can be administered not close to the seasonal deadline”.
Professor Palù, virologist of the scientific technical committee and chairman of the board of directors of the Aifa drug agency, the government introduced the obligation to vaccinate. One of the complaints concerns the fact that it would not work very well.
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‘Challenge rejected. No vaccine protects 100%, so talking about sterilizing immunity, the one that prevents the virus from infecting cells, now makes little sense. The same goes for herd immunity. We live in a globalized world, with large sections of the population not vaccinated: we will never reach it. It is better to take as a reference the protection from the disease, from Covid, and remember how very few vaccines guarantee such a high barrier as that erected by mRNA vaccines that have shown, just used, an efficacy of 95% “.
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In two years of the pandemic though the virus has changed and we continue to shield ourselves with the same vaccines. Isn’t it time to rethink them?
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«Yes, the virus that has been around for at least two years has significantly changed from the original Wuhan strain against which all the products authorized so far have been manufactured. Consequently, their protective efficacy gradually decreased. It remains essential to complete the vaccination cycle with the third dose which significantly reduces the risk of hospitalization and death “.
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Until we have an updated vaccine will we go on with a third, fourth, fifth dose?
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«Vaccines remain the main weapon to avoid disease, especially if adopted on a universal basis. Effective antiviral drugs will allow us to better cope with Covid-19 and make Sars-CoV-2 endemic. With the technologies at our disposal, I foresee a future characterized by updated compounds on the variants that worry, a very strong shield, which can be administered at a not close seasonal expiration ».
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What hypotheses about the birth of Omicron?
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“It may have arisen spontaneously in an isolated population in close contact. Or, and this is the most likely hypothesis at the moment, it has developed in a person with a compromised immune system. Could animals have participated in this process? Yes, there may have been a ping pong between man and animal, possibly a rodent, as recent work seems to indicate. There is a fourth possibility, less probable: that everything happened by virtue of a recombination between human stocks ».
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It is definitely established that Omicron infection is comparable to a cold?
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‘Animal model experiments would prove it, and early human studies suggest Omicron may be responsible for less severe disease. This is because some mutations put her at a disadvantage, making her unable to cause severe pneumonia. And so to be affected would be the upper airways, pharynx, trachea, bronchi with milder symptoms, similar to colds ».
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Should we expect other surprises?
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‘It is possible that the virus accumulates other mutations in one of its 29 genes. In France, a variant imported from the Camerum has been identified, of which we still know little. Usually a virus if it gains one advantage loses another. Example: if it refines infectivity and the ability to evade the immune system, it could not be even more lethal, on pain of extinction. It is difficult to think of strains with more infectiousness than Omicron that it has been the most contagious so far, incubation time 2-3 days “.
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So could we see a better future?
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«Impossible to make predictions in the short term. Let’s not let our guard down. Omicron could continue to spread while maintaining or increasing the ability to give a cold-like infection and the contagion curve could still increase exponentially, peak and shut down, as is happening in South Africa. Or the continued spread of the variant could cause clogging of hospitals and a significant increase in deaths among the unvaccinated and especially the frail. A further scenario, although less likely, is that the variant acquires the ability to affect the lungs while maintaining the same contagiousness. It is a hypothesis not to be excluded, which despite being contrary to the evolutionary purpose of the virus makes the preparation of a new vaccine urgent “.
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Could we also be pardoned by Omicron and sail towards an auspicious spring?
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“It will take weeks before European data will clarify whether the picture of the severity of the disease is worse or better than Delta and if we will have a decrease in infections and hospitalizations in intensive care and in Covid wards. It remains essential to implement the administration of third doses, to support pediatric vaccination which very recent data demonstrate free from adverse reactions and to focus on home medicine to treat patients early. “
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January 8, 2022 (change January 8, 2022 | 22:28)
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