For months, the world held its breath in suspense as Ukraine prepared for a large-scale spring offensive.
By June, it was underway, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, armed to the teeth with Western war materiel, took to the battlefield to retake their country.
Despite the fact that the progress of the offensive has been slower than many observers had hoped for, the Ukrainian forces have slowly but surely recaptured Russian-occupied areas, according to the think tank ISW.
– Running out of competent officers
Has succeeded on three fronts
The renowned think tank reports that over the past 24 hours the counter-offensive has been successful on three fronts, and Ukrainian troops continue to push back the Russians. Street by street, meter by meter.
– There has been incremental progress in the area around Orikhovo-Vasylivka, northwest of Bakhmut, as well as in the area around the border between Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk, Arne Bård Dalhaug tells Dagbladet.
MILITARY EXPERT: Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug has followed the war in Ukraine closely. Photo: Lars Eivind Bones / Dagbladet Show more
The retired lieutenant general believes that one must have sober expectations of what the Ukrainians will be able to achieve before winter; Attacks on such a scale are hard and slow work.
– You cannot expect the counter-offensive to be a “walk in the park”. We are talking about an extremely complicated operation.
And it will probably get worse.
Because while the Ukrainians were preparing to attack, the Russian forces were making their own preparations.
RECONQUERING: Ukrainian forces have slowly but surely recaptured Russian-occupied areas. Photo: AP Photo / Libkos / NTB Show more
– Reached the first line
For months the Russians fortified their defensive lines, waiting for the attack of which the whole world had been warned.
Miles of defenses were constructed to deter attacks against strategically important positions. Trenches, artillery positions and dragon’s teeth were set up criss-crossing the Ukrainian landscape.
In several areas, the defenses are several kilometers deep, says Dalhaug.
– From satellite images, we know that these defensive positions consist of three lines, with around ten to fifteen kilometers between each of them.
And perhaps most frightening for the Ukrainian forces: They have not yet reached the most fortified areas. And it is now that the real trial begins, according to Dalhaug.
– The Ukrainian forces are now close to the first of the major defensive positions. They have reached a zone of the Russian defensive lines which is intended to slow down the advance, before reaching the first really developed defensive positions.
DEFENSE IN DEPTH: The Russians have built up a formidable defense that is several kilometers deep in certain areas, says Arne Bård Dalhaug. Photo: AP Photo / Libkos / NTB Show more
– Spread thin
But it is not only the Ukrainian forces who will have a herculean task ahead of them. The Russians have their own challenges, first and foremost: the huge area they have to defend.
– We must remember that the front is very long, and the Russian defense will be spread quite thinly. You simply do not have enough troops to be able to cover the entire front, explains Dalhaug.
The Russian forces are having major problems rotating in new troops and bringing in reinforcements in several of the areas where the Ukrainians are now advancing, according to ISWciting a prominent Russian military blogger.
It will be practically impossible for Russia to cover the entire 1,500 kilometer long front line, and that could create openings for the Ukrainians, Dalhaug believes.
– If you try to cover everything, you will be stretched thin everywhere. Whereas if one concentrates around certain areas, the enemy may choose to attack the areas you have selected.
HARD FIGHTING: Heavy fighting is now taking place in several areas along the 1,500 kilometer long front line. Photo: AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky / NTB Show more
Dalhaug compares this to the Allies’ attack on the Nazi defense lines after the invasion of Normandy. For around six weeks, the Allied forces were deadlocked, before a sudden breakthrough sent the Nazis into full retreat.
And that is exactly the kind of breakthrough the Ukrainians are looking for, and they will try to exploit any weakness they can find, he says.
– In the last period, the Ukrainians have done a lot of what we call “clarification by fire”. This means that one analyzes where the enemy is strong, or not, through preliminary battles.
Such tests of the Russian defense can achieve results, according to the military expert.
– It could be that they have found weaknesses in the Russians’ lines in this way. So there are opportunities to break through, if they find areas where the Russians are thinly manned and manage to exploit them.
CONTROVERSIAL: The US recently decided to donate controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine. Opponents of the weapons believe they predict even greater damage to civilians than conventional weapons. Photo: REUTERS / Clodagh Kilcoyne / NTB Show more
– Could be an advantage
But the Ukrainians have now got a new ace up their sleeve, Dalhaug believes: The recently acquired cluster bombs.
– A report from the Washington Post claims that the Ukrainians have now adopted cluster munitions. It will be interesting to see how that situation will develop, because it is clear that such weapons will have the ability to influence the conflict in Ukraine’s favor.
Cluster munitions open in the air and scatter hundreds of smaller explosive charges over a large area. Dalhaug says that such weapons can contribute to the Ukrainian advance, among other things by effectively clearing Russian minefields.
But like so many of the weapons and strategies now being used on the ground in Ukraine, cluster munitions have not been used on a large scale, and the battlefield will be the ultimate litmus test.
– Like so much else, these weapons have not been tested in real situations, under such circumstances, warns Dalhaug.
2023-07-21 21:27:47
#test #fire #starts
